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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: and the pitching shall lead them

By Alan Carpenter

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 04: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 4, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 04: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 4, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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The Braves have just completed a stint of 22 games in 20 days, going 13-9 in the process.  How did this happen?

The worst part didn’t quite begin on August 1st, but for the sake of having convenient – and slightly deeper – stats, we can pretend that it did.  Today’s topic is the Atlanta Braves‘ schedule that began on August 2nd and ran through Sunday the 26th.

The core of this nutty stretch was the bit that started with a double-header on the 7th and featured no days off until today.

Here, then, are the totals for August thus far, with MLB ranks:

  • Games played:  26 (tie: most in majors)
  • Record:  16-10  (7th best win percentage)
  • Runs scored:  110  (tie 10th)
  • Batt. Avg:  .256  (tie 11th)
  • OBP:  .313  (tie 17th)
  • wRC+:  96 (tie 17th)
  • Offense/Fielding WAR:  3.8 (tie 10th; heavily weighted toward the defensive end)

That’s truly not half bad.  Over the same time period, the Philadelphia Phillies have gone 11-12, just to provide a useful comparison.  The Nationals were 12-13.

Here’s the numbers that should be of particular interest: the starting pitching stats.

  • Starter’s Team ERA:  3.45 (5th in majors… just missing 4th)

Oh, I’m sorrry… that’s for the full season.  Here’s August only:

  • Starter’s Team ERA:  2.46 (2nd in majors… trails only Oakland’s 2.42)
  • Pitching fWAR:  3.5 (3rd)
  • Homer rate per game:  0.60 (1st)
  • Wins credited:  12 (tie 2nd)
  • Walk rate:  18th
  • Strikeout rate:  11th
  • BABIP (batting avg on balls in play):  .247  (1st)
  • Homer-to-fly-ball ratio:  7.5% (1st)
  • Innings pitched:  150.0  (1st)
  • Contact rate in strike zone: 86.4% (tie 11th)
  • Swing-rate, balls in strike zone:  64.7% (5th best)

A few words about these numbers:

  • Note that these come despite having multiple rookies start some games, including Bryse Wilson (0.00 ERA), Max Fried (0.00, though just 2 innings thanks to an injury), and Touki Toussaint (1.50).
  • This is not a ‘high strikeout staff’, and the walk rate isn’t particularly grand, either.  What may be happening is (a) great defense; and (b) a tendency toward weaker contact (which helps drive the BABIP number down).
  • No, the BABIP isn’t a luck factor… not with 150 innings of data behind it.  This is about these pitchers executing their game plans well.
  • Note that last figure:  64.7% Z-swing rate.  That’s getting hitters to take strikes without swinging at them.  So this is about ‘getting strike 1’ as has been preached a lot this season.

Of particular note for upcoming games:  the teams with the best (lowest) Z-swing rates other than Atlanta includes these starting staffs:

  • Arizona (1st)
  • Tampa Bay (2nd)
  • Cubs (6th)
  • Nationals (7th)
  • Giants (10th)
  • Phillies (11th)

The Braves’ hitters need to be aware of this as well:  these opposing pitchers know about getting ahead of hitters, and for the most part, you can see that the tactic is working for those teams as well.

To Arms!  To Arms!

Let’s look at the some of the outstanding individual August performances so far:

  • Touki Toussaint.  Only 6 innings, but hitters had no idea what to do with him throwing strikes:  43.3% swing rate for pitches in the zone.
  • Julio Teheran:  2.45 ERA.  He was simply fooling hitters a lot as he had the lowest contact rate on strikes at 79.4%.  That said, his line drive rate was high:  26% (only Sean Newcomb‘s was higher), but a WHIP of 0.82 limited the damage significantly.
  • Mike Foltynewicz:  1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, close to a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He’s looking really good.

Special note for Kevin Gausman.  His month has made the Braves’ coaches and brass look like total geniuses.  Rarely do you see an experienced player be asked to make adjustments and then see those adjustments immediately yield fruit.

Here’s his ERA and WHIP by month:

  • March/April:  4.15, 1.30
  • May:  4.50, 1.43
  • June:  3.94, 1.35
  • July:  5.16, 1.42
  • August:  1.69, 0.88

Okay, yeah… I know:  the NL East isn’t the AL East.  But are they truly that different?? Gausman will probably get one more start this month, and unless total disaster occurs, he’ll have more innings than any other month so far and give up half or fewer runs than almost every other month… even if you double the runs he’s allowed in August (6 in August so far; previous low was 13 in June).

As well, you may have other ideas about how to read these – or other – August stats… but for sure, this is a solid month of sustained production that has yielded the 3rd fewest starter runs (ignoring Tampa Bay, given their use of ‘opener’ pitchers) of any team in the majors this month.

More from Tomahawk Take

Life Preserver

This all could not have come at a better time.  Honestly, the Braves’ hitting has been quite pedestrian lately… especially over the past 10 days or so.  This is happening from unexpected sources, too:  names like Markakis, Freeman, and Flowers are scuffling at the plate.

But it is a Braves’ tradition that is now showing up, big-time:  the starting pitching is carrying this team.  Credit should also be heaped upon the coaching staff for working out a schedule that kept the starters fresh and well-rested during this testing period… obviously the results speak for themselves.

Hopefully all of this  continues to do so… for with this treacherous schedule coming and the bats lagging, something will have to keep this team going in these tough games.

dark. Next. Even More Pitching!

The starting pitching may very well be that thing.

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