Atlanta Braves Sean Newcomb: talented but inconsistent
By Fred Owens
Atlanta Braves lefty Sean Newcomb can be dominant but too often isn’t. Inconsistency is common in young pitchers, but the Braves need the dominant Newcomb for postseason play.
Wednesday Atlanta Braves‘ lefty Sean Newcomb took the mound with a chance to sweep the Rays. Instead, he threw 94 pitches to 22 batters in four innings, gave up six runs and the Braves settled for a series split.
There seemed little reason for his inconsistency: 62 of his 94 pitches were strikes though he didn’t exactly pound the zone. Ten hitters received the gift of a first-pitch ball, in line with his 54% first strike ratio.
On the night he struck out seven and walked two but the Rays’ ran rampant on the bases. They knew Newcomb isn’t quick to the plate, his pickoff move isn’t worrying, Tyler Flowers rarely throws to first and Flowers’ pop time and accuracy aren’t anything to write home about.
In the postseason a runner on first base at any point in the game, constitutes a rally – no matter how he got there. As a result, batters give away fewer at-bats, swing at fewer close-but-not-quite-there pitches and take their walks. That means pitchers have to throw more strikes.
The Atlanta Braves know Newcomb can do that: he made a very good Dodger lineup look really bad. Why doesn’t he do it more often? I believe there are two factors- catcher ERA and days of rest – that affects the real issue: believing in your stuff.
Catcher era
A few years back the idea of catcher ERA popped up in a lot of discussions. Since then folks have debated the value of CERA and there’s a long discussion on this in The Hardball Times about using it to compare a lot of catchers over time.
Both of the Atlanta Braves’ catchers have relatively the same amount of time behind the plate with Newcomb. That makes this comparison free of any regressed statistics or confusing formulas.
Simple and complex
The issue popped up when Atlanta Braves beat writer Mark Bowman tweeted about Newcomb’s ERA being significantly higher than the rest of the staff in August.
Braves starting pitchers have a 2.97 ERA over 20 games dating back to Aug. 10. Newcomb has a 8.38 ERA in four starts during this stretch. Atlanta's other starters have a combined 1.94 ERA.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) August 30, 2018
It occurred to me that Newcomb seemed to pitch more effectively when Kurt Suzuki caught him instead of Flowers.
A quick check of games since the All-Star break found that to be true. Both Flowers and Suzuki caught Newcomb three times before Wednesday evening and in raw numbers, Newcomb performed better with Suzuki behind the plate
- Flowers + Newcomb 15 2/3 IP, 14 earned runs and an 8.04 ERA
- Suzuki + Newcomb 20 2/3 IP, 3 earned runs and a 1.30 ERA
Someone asked whether days of rest were different and if that made a difference. The pitcher’s days of rest weren’t exactly alike but I didn’t believe rest alone caused the difference. So I looked at the season as a whole.