Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: pitching and walks and history
The assertion has been made: ‘guys are tired’. That’s the excuse being make for all of the walks being issued by Braves’ pitching, but is that accurate?
First, let’s establish the extent of the problem. The Atlanta Braves have walked more than any other pitching staff in the major leagues in September. Period.
It’s actually not even close. Before last night – a game in which 7 more walks were issued – the Braves have written free passes at the rate of 5.56 walks per game. To narrow it down further, the past 14 days had this number pegged at 6.25 per game.
Obviously, that rate still isn’t receding.
This is still a relatively recent phenomenon: in August, the Braves’ walk rate was only 3.00… which ranked 15th in the majors and was nowhere near this problematic.
In September? 91 total walks in 16 games. 8,190 feet of walks. Over a mile and a half of walks. The only people happy about such numbers are the braves opponents and the people who make FitBit watches.
So yes, the Atlanta pitchers are now walking batters at twice the current major league median.
I say ‘current’ for a couple of reasons… one of these is about the ranking, as already noted. The other is about the alleged fatigue factor. Let’s look at that for a minute:
The Tiring, Tried, and Tired
The Braves have had few days off recently. August was a tough scheduling month. As a result, innings have accumulated.
For the entire staff, Atlanta ranked 3rd in total innings pitched that month – roughly 6 behind the Yankees and Mets.
In these past 2 weeks before Monday’s game – during the core of the walking problem – Atlanta has 118 innings pitched. That’s 2nd only to the Nationals (120) in the majors. The median number is 108.5 innings… so they’ve had just under one extra inning per day overall.
However, the staff should have been more rested. Mike Foltynewicz threw a complete game in San Francisco, which effectively gave the entire bullpen two days off, given the travel day.
In addition, the expanded roster has the effect of spreading out the load among the available arms. No non-starter had more than 6.1 innings thrown in that 2 week period.
Yet among those bullpen denizens, only 2 have a walk rate of less than 4 per 9 innings… and only 4 of the 14 are at less than five walks per 9. That’s not even counting Julio Teheran’s 6-pack over the weekend or Folty’s 4-bagger in the 1st on Monday.
But … everybody else?
No – this really isn’t about fatigue. Of 384 MLB relief pitchers throwing over the last 2 weeks, 124 do have walk rates over 5.00. On average, 1/30th of these – four – should be expected to wear an Atlanta uniform with all things being equal.
There’s 10 Braves on that list.
I’ll go further: 35 MLB relievers are over 10.00 walks per 9 innings. SIX of those are Braves.
How about the starters? Over 2 weeks’ time, MLB teams have used 180 starters. 4 Braves appear in the worst 50 for walks… which doesn’t include Foltynewicz since his Giants outing balances last night’s effort.
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In other words, you could argue that all teams should be just as tired at this part of the year… especially given this era of ‘openers’ and starters that are coming out of games sooner than ever before.
Yet the Braves are still walking hitters at a crazy-high rate – well above their peers. It may be a temporary aberration, but it’s one that’s continuing to feed upon itself as the pressure builds for the next guy to throw more strikes.
A glance at the historic record of pitching through the ages shows that walk rates are essentially unchanged over a period of multiple decades.
It’s not about August or the era we’re in. It never has been.
The Braves’ pitchers need to get their heads on straight and their acts together. This isn’t about fatigue. It’s about command. It’s about confidence. It’s about pitching.
Sometime over the past month… that’s all been lost.