Atlanta Braves: Does home field advantage really matter?

Is this late race for playoff home-field advantage, the question has to be asked: would it really be an advantage for the Braves?

The Atlanta Braves have done quite a good job on the road this year, to the tune of a 45-30 record. However, this impressive mark is offset by a rather dismal 39-38 record at Suntrust Park after Wednesday’s series-salvaging win over the Cardinals. It’s rather puzzling, because statistically teams almost always perform better at home then on the road.

Now, as the Braves approach a (fingers crossed) NLDS matchup with an unknown team, I feel like it’s important to get some context as to how teams with better home then road winning percentages have performed in the playoffs over the last 2 years.

The last team to make the playoffs with a losing record at home was, ironically, the 2001 Braves, according to baseball reference. That squad finished with a 40-41 record at home, and was eliminated in the NLCS by the Diamondbacks 4-1. I will be using baseball reference’s database for all of the team data mentioned here.

Recent History

The 2017 Houston Astros still had a winning record at home, but their record at home was worse than their record on the road. Other teams in the playoffs that season who also exhibited this trait were the Washington Nationals, the Minnesota Twins, and the Cleveland Indians.

As I’m sure you will recall, the Astros went on to win the World Series that season. The Nationals, as they are wont to do, lost in the NLDS to the Cubs 3-2. The Twins lost in the wild card game, and the Indians lost the Yankees in the ALDS. So, while the World Series winner had a better road record than at home, the other 3 teams were eliminated in their first round of the playoffs.

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In 2016, I have a much more limited set of data to draw from. No teams from that season in the playoffs had a better record away then at home. The Red Sox and Mets were the closest, and both were one game over their away record at home. The Mets were eliminated in the wild card game, and the Red Sox in the ALDS.

So from the admittedly limited data I’ve drawn from, it seems that teams with a better road record (or very close to that) have not done too well in the playoffs over the last two seasons. All the rest – except for the huge asterisk that is the Astros – were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Now I’m sure if I went back further I could find more examples, but I’m more interested in current data.

In the case of the one game wild card, it’s not clear if home field advantage is a real advantage or not. Since the game’s inception in 2012 (Ugh) home teams have only gone 5-7. The games often have what many pundits call a “Charged” environment, but it seems like the home crowd doesn’t offer a real advantage or disadvantage in the wild card environment.

Keeping with this trend, the teams with home field in the divisional rounds only have a 10-12 series record since 2012.

Bring it Back Home

So, back to the Braves. Should we be concerned if the Braves keep home field advantage? If they lose it? A tweet from Braves writer Dave O’ Brian summarizes my concerns rather well.

I’m not sure if any more sellouts have occurred since the Red Sox series, but that statistic troubles me greatly. Sellouts certainly constitute a “Playoff Atmosphere”, and a poor record at home, where you are supposed to have an advantage, does not seem to be a great omen.

Based on all of my research and the Braves current standing at home, it’s my belief that the Braves losing home field advantage would not be a bad thing. The great performances in some hostile environments actually give me confidence that the team could put up a fight on the road.

Whatever happens in the playoffs, an NLDS appearance would be a great gift to a fan base who suffered through some brutal years after the 2013 division title. I was at game one of that series, and I’m not sure if anything will ever top that experience.

Hopefully this year’s incarnation of the Braves have more October success then the last.