Atlanta Braves: Did Mike Foltynewicz show there’s again a “playoff ball”?

The 2017 MLB playoffs were marred by reports from multiple pitchers about a different ball making pitching more difficult. Did the Atlanta Braves starter show similar issues exist in 2018?

Mike Foltynewicz has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves this season. He took a significant step forward in his ability to locate his slider and his curveball, and that has led to his fastball playing off even better. On Thursday night, however, the effectiveness of his two breaking pitches was his downfall.

Coming into the 2018 season, per Fangraphs Pitch Info Pitch Values, Foltynewicz had spent the majority of his big league career with a negative-value fastball, likely due to struggles with consistent control of the pitch. His change and slider were both typically negative or near 0-value, with his curveball getting the most positive rating before the year.

His 2018 season saw his command and control allow his four-seam fastball play up to 7.6 runs above average, his changeup played up to 2.1 runs above average, and his curve up to 2.9 runs above average. Incredibly, his slider picked up all the way to 23.8 runs above average, becoming a key pitch.

He averaged 96.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball, 97 MPH on his two-seam fastball, 88.3 MPH on his changeup, 87.2 MPH on his slider, and 80.4 MPH on his curve.

Last offseason, Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish were among two of many that were vocal about how the playoff baseball was very different when compared to the regular season ball. One off-record comment from a pitcher discussed that the playoff baseballs would never cause a blister due to the very low seam length. The two pitches most impacted by that change in a pitcher’s repertoire would be a slider and a hard curveball.

The thing that would be most noted by a change in seam on the ball would be the spin rate on pitches. Incredibly, the evidence showed on Thursday:

To contrast, this is a graph of Foltynewicz’s start against the Giants, where he had plenty of each pitch to chart:

In looking at that view, you can see that the average spin of his breaking stuff in the bottom left is grouped lower and instead of being more spread in his spin axis, he sees nearly more of a grouping on the spin axis, which is not a good thing as he finished the night with an equal amount of sliders and curveballs (11 each).

Mike can look at one positive out of Thursday – he only allowed four balls into play, but when three of those four turned into extra-base hits, two home runs, there is definitely some concern. Folty also used his two-seamer much more heavily than typical, which leads to some wonder if he didn’t have good feel for his four-seam fastball. He did not throw a single changeup.

Going forward, the Atlanta Braves should not be affected as much by a changed ball as the two starters next up will be Anibal Sanchez and Kevin Gausman, two pitchers who work off fastball and changeup variations. Last night showed how Hyun-Jin Ryu had success using his curve and slider very rarely and instead relying on location of his multiple fastballs and fastball variants.