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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Odds suggest Braves will struggle to win in 2019

By Alan Carpenter

TOKYO, JAPAN - NOVEMBER 10: (L to R) Outfielder Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals, Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves, Catcher Robinson Chirinos #61 of the Texas Rangers, Infiedler Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds and Infielder Amed Rosario #1 of the New York Mets are seen during a warm-up prior to the game two of the Japan and MLB All Stars at Tokyo Dome on November 10, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images)
TOKYO, JAPAN - NOVEMBER 10: (L to R) Outfielder Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals, Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves, Catcher Robinson Chirinos #61 of the Texas Rangers, Infiedler Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds and Infielder Amed Rosario #1 of the New York Mets are seen during a warm-up prior to the game two of the Japan and MLB All Stars at Tokyo Dome on November 10, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images) /
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A look at the changes

The Nationals are improved in their rotation and (especially) at the catching position.  In the outfield, they lose Bryce Harper but probably will pick up Victor Robles.  Robles won’t have the power of Harper, certainly, but between he, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner, all three are going to be both excellent defenders and terrors to handle when on the basepaths.

Washington loses a bit of offense at 2nd base, but they improved their bullpen.  With their pitching making things difficult, the offense may not matter.  In total, they had an excellent off-season and should be counted on to be difficult foes right out of the gate.

The Phillies are harder to figure.  There have been scattered (somewhat sketchy) rumors overnight about the Phils getting Bryce Harper, and this 84.5 win number does not reflect his presence on that team.

So far, at least, there really isn’t much to rave about.  Carlos Santana is gone, Hoskins is back to 1st base, and Andrew McCutchen goes to left field.  Add Jean Segura at shortstop and now the defense is much better, though without a big change offensively.

Once you get past Nola and Arrieta in the rotation, things get a little more sketchy.

In all honesty, the Phillies have 2 big holes… holes that are shaped like Harper and Machado:  right field and 3rd base.  If both are filled, I could see them hit 90-92 wins (unless they sign Keuchel or Kimbrel, too, in which case it’s 94-96).

Without that, I don’t see them above a .500 team in this division… at least not at this specific point in time.

The New York Mets are improved at catcher (finally), the bullpen, and defensively.  They should hit enough (no, I don’t believe Robbie Cano is a big upgrade) and that despite the fact that Yoenis Cespedes might not be back until late in the year – if at all.

But bank will be made on their pitching staff, which is currently healthy and formidable.  Even if they don’t hit, the pitching will keep them in virtually every game.  That 84-85 win threshold is realistic.  We tend to laugh at their hapless health issues, but the fact is that these Mets will win a lot is they can stay on the field.

I have no words for the Marlins.

So let’s talk about the Braves instead.

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