Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: who is trending up or down?

The Atlanta Braves have had every player in camp for at least a week now, and are getting some game action under their belts as well. Who are the beneficiaries?

There are a few things we look for in evaluating those being evaluated by the Atlanta Braves coaching staff during the Spring.

At this point, there can be a ‘pecking order’ that gets established for players involved the various positional battles that might be happening.

Some players will get longer looks via extra ABs or extra turns on the mound, though the latter is tougher to quantify since nobody is throwing excess innings at this stage. The other related angle here is that pitchers will often throw in ‘B’ games or ‘backfield simulated games’ away from the public eye.

Order of appearance in games is also an important element, since the tougher (major league) competition starts games and is whittled down to AAAA/AAA/AA players as the games move toward the later innings. It’s clearly more important if you’re playing those early premium innings.

Finally, we can get some hints from the beat writers. If they are tipped off that they might need to pay attention to some player or another, an article often appears to let us know about them.

With that, let’s start looking at the roster as it’s shaping up for Opening Day… which is now just a month away.

The Locks

Barring injury or an unexpected trade, these players will be on the 25-man roster when the Atlanta Braves open the 2019 campaign in Philadelphia on March 28:

POSITIONS/BENCH

Freddie Freeman
Ozzie Albies
Dansby Swanson
Josh Donaldson
Ronald Acuña Jr
Ender Inciarte
Nick Markakis
Tyler Flowers
Brian McCann
Charlie Culberson
Johan Camargo [11]
<open slot>

ROTATION

Mike Foltynewicz
Sean Newcomb
Kevin Gausman
Julio Teheran [4]
<open slot?>

BULLPEN

Arodys Vizcaino
A.J. Minter
Darren O’Day
Jonny Venters [4]
<open slot>
<open slot>
<open slot>
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The schedule goes like this to open the season:

THR, March 28 (@PHL)
open date
SAT, March 30 (@PHL)
SUN, March 31 (@PHL)
MON, April 1 (vs. CUBS)
open date
WED, April 3 (vs. CUBS)
THR, April 4 (vs. CUBS)
FRI, April 5 (vs. MIA)
SAT, April 6 (vs. MIA)
SUN, April 7 (vs. MIA)
MON, April 8 (@COL)… and continuous games through April 14 (12 in a row total)

Because of this arrangement, the Braves will not need a 5th starter until the 7th of April, so the battle for the last rotation spot – which is likely to be fluid for much of the year anyway – can continue into April.

So that almost certainly provides an extra bullpen arm or position player. Last year, an extra position player was used (Lane Adams) during this early part of the schedule.

I am being conservative in bullpen trends right now – normally I would expect that Dan Winkler and Shane Carle are locks… and they might be… but their standing isn’t as tight at that of the others.

Both of these pitchers have minor league options available, and that fact does weigh in the decision-making if things are close.

So regardless how the final roster is constructed, here are the current trends:

Trending Up

POSITION PLAYERS

PEDRO FLORIMON, batting .429 with 7 AB thus far, a homer and only 1K included.
GREYSON JENISTA, also 3 for 7 with a sac fly included. Almost can’t make the team in any scenario, but is definitely interesting.

Others who won’t make the club, but are still turning heads:

PITCHERS

Max Fried. Looks like a man on a mission. Also getting the ‘vibe’.
Kyle Wright. These guys are really going to make the team force somebody else off the mound, aren’t they?
Chad Sobotka. 2 innings and 3K against no hits.
Bryse Wilson. 2 innings, 1 hit, 2K

Others who won’t make the club, but are still turning heads:

Kyle Muller. 1 inning with 2 punchouts

Special category: Mike Soroka. Got to be considered a favorite if he’s ready, and it’s not at all clear that this will be the case.

More from Tomahawk Take

The real battle problem will involve the bullpen, between these names (at least) Winkler, Carle, Sobotka, Wilson, possibly Touki Toussaint, and Sam Freeman. There’s not enough room for all of them.

The rotation could still see a change. It might not be a surprise to see someone traded as injuries elsewhere kick in. But for right now, it looks like Soroka, Wright, and Fried battling for a spot.

In truth, the first outings for next every ‘important’ prospect have been very good… and that’s great to see.

Trending Down

Adam Duvall. He’s simply running out of time.
Luke Jackson. Nowhere to go but ‘up’ from here.

One more name that we are still waiting to see a direction for: Luiz Gohara. There’s very little buzz about him right now.

Next. Peetah hangs up his cleats. dark

We’ll take another look next week, when we should have some better numbers to use for comparisons.

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