Atlanta Braves Afternoon Chop: the coming scrum in the NL East

Is there a means of separating the Atlanta Braves from the pack?

All along as this off-season has developed, we’ve noted that the Atlanta Braves will be in for a fight this season.  A new projection seen today in the USAToday takes that thought and runs with it. If this chart were to play out as predicted… that Allstate Mayhem Guy would be giving the 2019 season a standing ovation.

The projected wins and standings were developed by a panel of 6… well, we don’t actually know who they are, do we?  USAToday never named anyone involved. The story’s writer is Gabe Lacques and Bob Nightengale is their senior baseball writer. Beyond that… it’s unknown, though I have to admit that their predictions do fall in line with my own to a great degree.

Here’s the chart

(Alternate link)

Lacques’ writeup has an apt description of life in the NL East for this year:

"Welcome to hell. Not only will this be a four-team fight but every squad has a significant emotional investment here."

I tend to agree. This could be a serious scrum unless somebody does something to separate themselves from the pack.

Moreover, note how many ‘89-73’ records you see scattered among the NL teams. I won’t even begin to suggest just how many extra games might be necessary just to sort out division winners, wild card participants, and the close-but-no-cigar teams – before we could actually start playoff competition.

But we did notice something in the schedule last week: the Atlanta Braves have a bunch of inter-league contests against AL Central teams late in the year (August/September).

If they can hang close to the top of the division by then, they will have a chance to pull ahead against these weaker foes.

The other possibility is that the tough portion of the schedule puts them in a must-come-from-behind situation… but at least that provides the real chance for a late rebound.

Start Earlier?

Of course what we’d prefer is that the Braves do something – by performance, by acquisition – to achieving separation from the pack.

Thus far, of course, the word has been that they’d prefer to wait until July to make such moves… which sounds an awful lot like “we’re really hoping that trade prices will drop before then.”

Thus this point, it’s hard to see that separation happen, given the strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved:

• Nationals:  maybe the bullpen, right side of infield
• Phillies:  pitching depth
• Mets:  thin all over (except pitching… maybe)
• Braves:  pitching depth

There are weaknesses all around, and that seems to be reflected in these projections.

The USAToday panel believes that more teams will be competitive (over .500) than in the AL by a 9 to 8 margin.  That suggests 17 teams interested in improving at the trade deadline… ergo, more buyers than sellers.

Such a formula tells me that the prices for trades aren’t going to be a lot better in July than they already are.