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Atlanta Braves: Updated Over/Under for the 2019 Season

By Clint Manry

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 16: New Jersey U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan signs a paper at a polling center as he cast his vote on October 16, 2013 in Bogota, New Jersey. Cory Booker, a Democrat held a wide lead in the polls over Republican Tea Party candidate Steve Lonegan ahead of Wednesday's vote. (Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 16: New Jersey U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan signs a paper at a polling center as he cast his vote on October 16, 2013 in Bogota, New Jersey. Cory Booker, a Democrat held a wide lead in the polls over Republican Tea Party candidate Steve Lonegan ahead of Wednesday's vote. (Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
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As we inch closer to Opening Day and the Braves roster starts to take form, writers far and wide will share their predictions as to how the team will finish in 2019, what are they saying now?

This past January, fellow Tomahawk Take writer/editor, Alan Carpenter, wrote about what kind of odds the Atlanta Braves were working with going into this upcoming season. He reported a pretty grim prediction for the Braves at that time.

In Carpenter’s piece, he provided projected win totals for several different teams, including the entire NL East division. As a refresher, here’s what was reported, from Oddsshark.com:

  • Washington Nationals — 87.5 wins
  • Atlanta Braves — 84.5 wins
  • Philadelphia Phillies — 84.5 wins
  • New York Mets — 84.5 wins
  • Miami Marlins — 65.5 wins

Not a very exciting outlook for the Braves, eh? One thing the oddsmakers really feel strongly about is an extremely competitive NL East division, with three teams predicted to be neck and neck.

There have been a few changes made to the teams listed above since those January predictions were released, so it’s only right to see how each team’s win totals have been impacted:

Latest Predictions

Here’s the most recent win-total projections provided by Oddsshark.com on March 8 (with the win-total change included) :

  1. Philadelphia Phillies — 89.5 wins (+5)
  2. Washington Nationals — 88.5 wins (+1)
  3. Atlanta Braves — 86.5 wins (+2)
  4. New York Mets — 85.5 wins (+1)
  5. Miami Marlins — 63.5 wins (-2)

The fact that four out of five members of the NL East have trended in a positive direction since a month ago is interesting.

The Marlins projection is a rough one, as 63.5 wins mean practically 100 losses; and that makes for a very long season down in Miami.  Sometimes I wonder if partial-owner, Derek Jeter, really knew exactly what he was getting himself into when he decided to become an executive.

Miami’s catcher, and most likely the victim causing their win-total to drop by two wins, Jorge Alfaro, is dealing with some knee inflammation and has been shut down. He isn’t expected to miss any regular season competition… at the moment. Either way, at the end of the day what’s the difference between 63.5 wins and 65.5 wins?

We all have no idea why the Phillies got a boost in their win total, right? Yeah, Bryce Harper will add a few wins to the tally for a team, but it’s not just Harper that the Phillies have brought in to fight for a division crown.

Philadelphia added outfielder Andrew McCutchen, catcher J.T. Realmuto, infielder Jean Segura and reliever David Robertson to join in on the ‘stupid money’  operation that the Phillies promised for this offseason. Granted, not all of those players came from signings.

Another View

On Monday, ESPN.com released a list of Major League teams that improved their stock the most this winter, with the Phillies pacing the pack at an offseason improvement of 10 wins so far.

That may seem like a lot – and it is – but it’s possible just Harper and Realmuto provide that by themselves — if they have the type of seasons they’re capable of. So the Phillies are indeed a scary team.

The Mets rightfully didn’t move much, as they haven’t made any adjustments to the team in the past month, yet have made several acquisitions during the offseason.

The Mets are still, in my opinion, a huge threat this season IF  their pitching staff can stay on the field. The trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler is about as good as it gets.

Seeing that two more wins have been added to the Braves win-total is nice to see, as I was leaning more towards 87-90 wins from the very beginning; so it’s good to see the predictions are getting closer.

I will say, I am surprised that the win-totals trended upwards even though the Braves had six different pitchers experience some sort of arm/shoulder ailment. On Monday the latest was reported on starter Mike Foltynewicz.

Per an update by ESPN.com:

"Atlanta Braves ace Mike Foltynewicz will not be on the team’s Opening Day roster as he continues to recover from soreness in his pitching elbow."

More from Tomahawk Take

We all knew this could be a possibility, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman informed us last week; but now that it’s actually a reality, it really brings down the hype some regarding Opening Day.

Win-totals and predictions can be fun to look at, and even sometimes an important aspect of the offseason, as there has to be some sort of expectation for a team. If not, then how do you know if a team achieved an appropriate amount of success or failure?

But if there’s anything we took away from the 2018 season, it’s that projections can be sure-enough wrong. A season of 86-87 wins is a good season for the Braves, but after last season, the organization should most definitely expect more.

dark. Next. Liberty Media getting impatient?

Now that Opening Day is merely 2½ weeks away, how many wins do you think the Braves will earn in 2019? Are the predictions fair? Let us know below!

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