Atlanta Braves: How Concerning Is Mike Foltynewicz Poor Start To 2019?

Slider Struggles

It can be rather depressing when just simply comparing Foltynewicz’s 2018 numbers to his current ones. There are several key stats that jump off the page.

However, it may surprise many that, in terms of batted-ball results against Foltynewicz, hitters aren’t doing anything too extraordinarily different from last year (at least in a conventional sense).

Foltynewicz is currently giving up an average exit velocity of 87.9 MPH, which is actually a small improvement compared to the 88.3 MPH he finished with in 2018 (I know, sample size!).

Furthermore, his 36.8% hard-hit rate in 2019 isn’t too daunting when you look at the 34.5% from last year.

As far as the hitters’ bat hitting the pitches thrown by Foltynewicz, the contact isn’t any better for opponents than in last season. Now the results … well, that’s a different story.

Results-wise, it’s pretty bad. But we already know this, hence the reason for this article. The home runs already given up by Foltynewicz are really concerning, as he’s already surrendered 10 homers in just 27.1 innings, compared to 17 in all of last season.

Which brings me to my first discovery — his slider. Foltynewicz throws a lot of fastballs and sliders.

In 2018 those two offerings made up 67.5% of his pitches. And last season both of those pitches were great for him.

2018 Season

• Fastball:  .231 BA — .412 SLG
• Slider:      .111 BA — .186 SLG

But so far this season Foltynewicz’s slider has been his worst pitch. He’s still throwing it frequently (his most thrown offering), but it’s not doing him any favors this time around.

2019 Slider: 5 HR — .306 BA — .778 SLG

Because his slider is so important for him and his pitching gameplan, that particular pitch has attributed to a lot of the downward trend that we’re currently witnessing with Foltynewicz.

After Folty’s second start of the season, a poor 82-pitch outing in late April where he only lasted 4.2 innings and gave up six earned runs from eight hits; the Atlanta Journal-Constitution‘s, Kelsey Russo, wrote this in her May 2nd article:

"Foltynewicz said he wasn’t worried about getting his slider back, though. It took him about 3-4 years to get the pitch to where he had it last year. He knows he has to keep working on the pitch for it to return to where it was."

In her piece, she talks about how manager, Brian Snitker, and catcher, Tyler Flowers, feel that his struggles shouldn’t be a cause of too much concern. The general consensus was that Foltynewicz would find his pitch again.

In that same write-up, here’s Foltynewicz’s explanation regarding his slider:

"Last year was my really good year with it, and maybe guys are sitting on it or looking for it, but it’s just not really getting that bite either."

And another comment from the Braves righty, providing reassurance that his slider’s effectiveness will return in 2019:

"Sometimes during the season you lose a pitch here and there, but it’s going to come back,” Foltynewicz said. “We’re professional athletes so we know what we’ve got to do to make adjustments, so I’ll find it out quick."

According to BaseballSavant, Foltynewicz’s slider is dropping (vertically) and breaking (horizontally) 3 inches more than last season. Whether or not that’s a large enough variance, physically, is unknown.

But I would assume 3 inches is substantial enough to impact the quality of the offering for sure.

And even if the physicality of the pitch isn’t the root cause of such poor results, something almost has to be different about Foltynewicz’s slider.

Last season Foltynewicz’s slider had a strikeout rate of 42.4%. Now, at just 21.1%, is the pitch moving too much that it’s easily picked up by the batter? Is an increase of 3 inches enough to make that big of a difference?

Sliders, like all breaking balls, are designed to throw a hitter off balance or to fool them. That’s why they work so well off of fastballs, especially hard fastballs.

Righty-Splits Problems

What’s interesting about Foltynewicz’s struggles thus far in 2019 is that he has struggled to put away same-handed hitters, righties.

As many of us know, pitchers usually have better results when they have the handiness advantage.

Note, these are extreme levels of small-sample sizes, but basically all numbers are SSS at this juncture.

Through 12.2 innings, Foltynewicz has given up 13 of his 21 earned runs against righty batters and six of his 10 home runs.

Comparing slash lines illustrates even more of a handiness issue, as righties are performing at a rate of .327/.383/.727 versus Foltynewicz, compared to a meager .204/.254/.481 for lefties.

To me, it becomes even more apparent, when looking at these splits, that Folty’s slider is holding him back.

For a right-handed pitcher, the slider or curveball is commonly deployed as a primary strikeout-pitch against right-handed batters.

Consequently, when that particular pitch isn’t working as an effective out-pitch, the disadvantages can begin to pile up for a pitcher.

I mentioned the home runs surrendered by Foltynewicz in terms of righties versus lefties, and given the ratio of 6 homers to righties and 4 to lefties, his 4.3 HR/9 versus righties compared to 2.5 HR/9 should come as no surprise.

But those home run totals are influenced by a rather hefty difference in opponents’ batted-ball profile against Folty.

Five starts into the 2019 season, right-handed hitters are running a 45.8% hard-hit rate against him, as opposed to a much more workable clip of 36.2% for lefties.