House That Hank Built
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An alternate universe Atlanta Braves draft strategy for Monday: draft an unsignable player

By Alan Carpenter

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 04: The entrance to the visiting team's locker room remains inside Candlestick Park on February 4, 2015 in San Francisco, California. The demolition of Candlestick Park, the former home of the San Francisco Giants and San Francisco 49ers, is underway and is expected to take 3 months to complete. A development with a mall and housing is planned for the site. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 04: The entrance to the visiting team's locker room remains inside Candlestick Park on February 4, 2015 in San Francisco, California. The demolition of Candlestick Park, the former home of the San Francisco Giants and San Francisco 49ers, is underway and is expected to take 3 months to complete. A development with a mall and housing is planned for the site. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /
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BALTIMORE, MD – JUNE 03: Chase Headley #12 of the New York Yankees hits a broken bat single in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 3, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD – JUNE 03: Chase Headley #12 of the New York Yankees hits a broken bat single in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 3, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Part 2 – the scramble

If the draft does indeed break against the Braves like this, they will be faced with a dilemma.

There are roughly 3 options:

  • ONE:  Go ahead and take the Best Player Available, probably a high school pitcher.  Already the ‘bust’ factor is around 50%, even for 1st rounders.
  • TWO:  Take an ‘underslot’ player… someone ranked perhaps in the 20-30 range on draft boards.  The idea is to sign such a player for less money than their draft position would indicate to save money for a tougher-sign guy later on.

Even in the underslot scenario, this doesn’t mean that you’re getting better players (unless we’re talking about an injured guy with high upside potential).

On average, you may end up with a better group, but it doesn’t change how scouts feel about them:  better players would be drafted earlier, period.

It’s the third option that might be the one where a gutsy call gets made.

Part 3 – the strategery

There’s been some confusion about a key element of this plan… and the confused people included this author at one point.  McDaniel himself also had this point confused as well.  I’ll once again quote from his 1st Mock Draft:

"This pick also isn’t protected if Atlanta doesn’t sign whoever they take, so a tough sign likely isn’t an option."

Au contraire.

On May 3rd, Baseball America, who originally believed the same thing, issued a free-to-read correction of the record:

"Today, in our most recently published Mock Draft, we wrote about compensation picks for the Braves (No. 9), Diamondbacks (No. 26) and Dodgers (No. 31), under the assumption that if these teams didn’t sign their respective picks, they would not be given a compensation pick the following year. We were incorrect and apologize for the error. Our mistake arose from discussions we have had with front office officials with a variety of teams who were under the same impression. Sources from five different teams who we contacted were also operating under the assumption that those compensation picks were not protected."

Why do we care?  Because this is precisely the point at which the Atlanta Braves could choose to kick their can down the road once again.

In an ESPN story ironically about a strategy for ‘gaming’ the MLB draft, Jeff Passan throws in this juicy little tidbit (emphasis and paragraph breaks added):

"The industry buzz about the talent in the 2020 draft dwarfs the talk about this class. Two evaluators said 2020 looks like the best MLB draft since the stacked 2011 draft, with a first round that included Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, George Springer and Jose Fernandez, Blake Snell and Trevor Story, plus Mookie Betts, Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Treinen and dozens more major leaguers in later rounds. The 2020 draft got even better this week, as Blaze Jordan, a top high school player, told Baseball America he was reclassifying to enter next year’s draft as a 17-year-old."

Oh really?

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