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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: on playoff odds and possible pitfalls

By Alan Carpenter

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 02: A general view of fans prior to the National League Wild Card Game between the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 02: A general view of fans prior to the National League Wild Card Game between the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /
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It’s fashionable to make early – or even daily – playoff odds.  But after 70 games, some things are falling into their proper places.

“If the season ended today” is a phrase we should all actually despise, partly because we don’t want baseball to end.  Yet whenever the phrase is used, it is good to see the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East standings.

We are now at or beyond the 70 game point for most teams now, and the “halfway” mark will be coming up beyond month’s end.

By now, many teams have figured out who/what they are all about and reality has begun to sink in for many.

Conversely, the true contenders have emerged, and lines denoting the thick boundaries between future “buyers” and “sellers” are being drawn.

The Atlanta Braves have already made one of the 2 biggest splashes in getting Dallas Keuchel.  In doing so, they have signaled to all concerned that they are now ‘in it to win it’.

In looking at some of these analyses, though, there might be some room for concern.

Playoff Odds

If you look at these by themselves, you might be tempted just to walk away and blissfully ignore the rest.  Here’s what a couple of outlets are suggesting, as of Saturday morning:

  • Baseball-reference.com
    • Braves odds for post-season:  79.4% (69.4% to win NL East)
    • Recent Changes:  up 25% in past 30 days
  • BaseballProspectus.com
    • Odds for post-season:  76.3% (57.4% to win NL East)
    • “Adjusted” playoff percentage:  67.1%
    • Recent changes:  +22.8% in past week

There’s some additional data I’d like to point out, though:

  • ESPN RPI (Relative Power Index):  7th, with the 13th weakest schedule
  • Pythagorean W-L record (37-33)  [vs. actual record of 41-29 as of mid-Saturday]
  • Run differential:  +26

These last 2 are related:  Bill James‘ Pythagorean theorem of baseball involves this formula:

  • If RS = (Runs Scored)^2    [the square of runs scored], and
  • RA = (Runs Allowed)^2
  • then the pythagorean score is RS / (RS + RA)

The run differential is not a universal ‘tell’ on the state of each team, but it is important.  Teams can eke by and win despite very low – or even negative numbers here, but it’s hardly routine to see that.

Here’s Saturday’s snapshot of run differentials in the NL:

  • Dodgers +111
  • Cubs +61
  • DBacks +61
  • Reds +31 (!)
  • Braves +26
  • Phillies +19
  • Cardinals +12
  • Brewers +11
  • Rockies +7
  • Nationals -2
  • Mets -19
  • Padres -33
  • Marlins -76
  • Pirates -77 (!)
  • Giants -81

Cincinnati has gotten where they are thanks to numerous blowouts and substantially fewer close losses.  The Pirates are the reverse – and that number comes despite thrashing the Marlins 11-0 on Flag Day.

The Braves could certainly be much worse off than they are.  3 epic comebacks (down by 3+ entering the 9th inning… which doesn’t count Friday’s big win) speak to that.  Drop those games and that Pythagorean record of 37-33 makes a lot more sense.

How it’s really going

So these numbers suggest… what?

1. Getting Keuchel was a serious move to make and it was done to fill a real need.  Some starters are not going deep enough into games, and that will impact the bullpen.  Keuchel will help there, for sure.

2. The bullpen itself has improved dramatically:  down to a 3.73 ERA over the past 30 days from 4.51 through May 15.  There is more work to do there, and Alex Anthopolos will do it.

The Atlanta Braves, as currently constituted, are not quite ready for prime time.  Their path seems solid, but if they wish to compete deep into October, a little more would be helpful.

It may not require a huge move, but something more will be necessary.  I like being ‘greedy’ so that others can’t improve themselves enough to leap-frog this club, so I wouldn’t mind a real expenditure.

Those Buyers and Sellers

Here’s the way that looks right now:

THE OBVIOUS SELLERS

  • Baltimore (though what do they have to offer?)
  • Miami
  • Kansas City
  • Toronto
  • Detroit
  • San Francisco
  • Seattle
  • Pittsburgh (it may be obvious to the rest of us, at least)
  • Cincinnati
  • San Diego (the most realistic club; almost everybody is up for sale)

THE BUBBLE TEAMS

  • Washington (if any club could emerge from this group, it’s the Nats)
  • NY Mets  (you can believe, but that’s not enough)
  • LA Angels (even Ohtani and Trout can’t beat the Astros without a lot of help)
  • White Sox (-46 run differential tells us what we need to know)

IN CONTENTION – LIKELY BUYERS

  • Oakland
  • Cleveland (here’s a team that should admit its mistakes and sell)
  • Boston (the reason most others in the AL should cash their remaining chips)
  • St. Louis
  • Arizona (this is the surprise)
  • Colorado

THE LEADERS AND DEFINITE BUYERS

  • Atlanta
  • Philadelphia
  • Chicago Cubs
  • LA Dodgers
  • NY Yankees
  • Tampa Bay
  • Texas (the AL shock team)

The next question:  when do the stores open for business?

Next. Can I get a refill of this Juice?. dark

We’ll look at those teams and their assets in coming weeks, but July appears in 2 more weeks and the July 31 trade deadline is the only deadline this year, so expect fast and furious deals that last week.

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