The Morning Chop: Atlanta Braves notes on Julio Teheran and late hitting
This story was going to be all about Julio Teheran, but then… deGrom happened.
Maybe the timing to talk about this isn’t the best, since the Atlanta Braves were just force-fed a serving of humble pie at the hands – the right hand, at least – of Jacob deGrom.
But suddenly, it seems that the media has rediscovered the fact that Julio Teheran had actually been a reliable out-getter since the first week of May.
It’s a bit weird, admittedly, since his 1st 7 starts of the season were definitely a collection of mixed bags, giving up: 3, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, and 4 runs while going beyond 6 innings once.
Since then? 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1… until Tuesday night’s unfortunate 6 run outburst from the Mets. That’s still pretty good.
In the past couple of days, there have been sudden puffed-up declarations from people wondering where ‘all these people have gone’ who wanted Teheran traded or otherwise dumped by the side of the road.
Well… I’m one of them and even with this recent stretch of excellent pitching, I’m still torn on the subject.
For the Record
Julio Teheran is 72-67 lifetime with the Atlanta Braves, sporting a 3.60 ERA. This season, he’s now at a 3.40 with a 5-5 record.
Since joining the major league club in 2011, his full seasons (2013-2018) have averaged 193 innings without any major injury.
It’s those numbers that have made me believe that the Braves should trade him. Next January, he’ll turn 29 (yeah, he’s still that young) and the Braves have 1 more year of control, should they choose to exercise the existing contact.
I still don’t know that Teheran is much better than a coin flip of whether any particular start is going to be ‘good’ or not, but he is trying to make that $12 million option decision (with $1 million buyout) at the end of the year a difficult one.
Ideally, teams with pitchers having 1-2 years of remaining control are trade candidates if the team either doesn’t see a long future relationship with the player or if there’s little chance of getting a contract extension.
There hasn’t been any talk of… anything, really… on the subject of Teheran’s future with the club. Right now, he is eating innings and providing consistent support in the rotation.
That’s valuable, no doubt. It might even be “$12 million valuable”.
I can’t say what Teheran’s Atlanta future looks like yet. I can say that he won’t be dealt before seasons’ end – that much is sure: this pitching staff needs innings accounted for, and if nothing else, that’s definitely Teheran’s track record.
That ‘Hitting By Inning’ thing
A lot is rightfully being made of the Braves’ run-production at the end of games. Here’s the breakdown:
- Innings 1-3: 961 plate appearances, 127 runs scored
- Innings 4-6: 946 PA, 126 runs
- Innings 7-9: 905 PA, 137 runs
- Extra innings: 63 PA, 8 runs
- (*all numbers before Tuesday; updates here)
Great numbers for the back end of games, including OPS+ values of 148, 126, and 126 in the 7th-9th innings (100 is average).
The cold water shower here is that once we get to playoff baseball, the Braves will have to figure out how to best the starting pitchers – those who are the best in the league – in the earlier innings.
This idea of feasting on lesser bullpens is great, but some better run support earlier (OPS+ is 93, 91, and 88 in innings 3-5) would certainly help, too.
AA Shuffle, Maybe?
Currently, the Mississippi Braves are located in the Southern League’s South division along with the clubs from Biloxi (MS), Pensacola (FL), Jacksonville (FL), and Mobile (AL).
The rest of the Southern League clubs – those in the North division are Montgomery and Birmingham (AL), Jackson (TN), Chattanooga (TN), and Tennessee (near Knoxville).
Next season, the club from Mobile is moving to the other end of the state of Alabama – to Madison (adjacent to Huntsville). Between that move and the location of the Montgomery Biscuits in the North division, you might think that a realignment might be called for.
Geographically, the best idea might be to take the 3 Tennessee teams, plus the Rocket City Trash Pandas (Madison) and Mississippi together to re-form the North division.
That would improve the travel for all, leaving the 2 Florida teams, the other 2 Alabama teams, and Biloxi for the South division.
The 2020 schedule won’t come out until August and I haven’t heard a sniff about such a realignment, but if done, that would certainly change the complexion of the Mississippi Braves’ schedule for 2020 and beyond.
But it also would be a good idea to reduce the travel hours for the teams and the players.