Atlanta Braves are starting to rehab Ender Inciarte… then what?

It’s still a decision that won’t be made until after the All-Star break, but there’s a real question about where Ender Inciarte plays when he returns to the majors.

The Atlanta Braves will do what all teams would do in a similar situation:  nothing – until they are forced to make a call.

Oftentimes, teams will have tough decisions made for them.  Players get injured, sometimes they have to leave the club for a period of time – lots of things can happen.

The Braves already dodged such a choice when Austin Riley was called up at precisely the moment Ender Inciarte hurt his back in the first place.

But now, he’s officially on the way back – no pun intended – and he’s starting slowly with the Florida Fire Frogs.

In 3 games, Inciarte has a single, a walk, and a strikeout in 7 plate appearances and hasn’t been allowed to play a full 9 innings yet.

In fact, he did not play at all in Thursday’s game, Florida’s 5th straight loss.

The Calendar

We’ve discussed this topic a bit already… but let’s look at the details, particularly on the subjects of ‘timing’ and ‘options’.

Starting on July 1, Inciarte’s rehab assignment can last no longer than 20 days – July 20th.

Of note:  the All-Star break (a) doesn’t matter; and (b) the minor leagues don’t take that break anyway – those with split seasons have already started their 2nd halves.

Assuming that Inciarte is healthy and actually stays in the minors that long, the day of reckoning comes on the 21st.

At that point, Inciarte almost certainly has to be brought to the majors on that date – regardless of his performance.

He does have a minor league option remaining, but the Braves cannot exercise it without the express permission of … Ender Inciarte.  Once the centerfielder hit 5 years of service time – that happened in late April – he earned the opportunity to decline any such assignment.

So if all of this comes together – what should happen on July 20?

Options

There are 3 scenarios for July 21 and following:

• Scenario 1 depends on Austin Riley.  Despite the occasional homer, he’s in a slump (.186 over the past 2 weeks; .218 over a month).
  • If that doesn’t improve, then the path of least resistance would be to option him back to AAA until he gets hot again.  Fans wouldn’t be happy, but it’s the easiest call.
  • Sure: the Braves could release Matt Joyce and place Riley into that bench slot.  But his long-term interests would be much better served with constant, consistent playing time… even if that happens in AAA.
• Scenario 2 depends on whether there’s anyone who wants Inciarte – and his contract – via a trade.
  • It’s likely this would be done as part of a bigger deal – unless Inciarte hits the turf hitting beyond his career norms (and there isn’t a lot of time to show that before the trade deadline)
• Scenario 3 might be the one with the most controversy.

The weakest link in the current Braves lineup right now – offensively at the least – is actually the right fielder, Nick Markakis.

He’s rallied a bit in recent days, but for the season, Markakis has an OPS+ of 99… just below league average.  He’s hitting well enough overall (consistently close to his .275 season average), but he’s been terrible on the road (.696 OPS).

That’s not a serious liability, per se, but it is the lowest output on the club – save for Tyler Flowers.

UPDATE:  So naturally, Markakis goes out and has a 3 for 4 night with 2 doubles and an RBI on Thursday.

Offensively, Inciarte would not necessarily be an upgrade, either, though defensively, he certainly would be, and he does have right field experience.

If the Braves are to bring Inciarte back to the majors – as they would have to do – using him in a bench role doesn’t do anyone a service:  it would neither help him to improve offensively, nor would it would it help his trade value (such as it is) either.

Least Likely

There is a 4th scenario… a nuclear option, as it were.  That would be releasing a player… whether that being Inciarte or Markakis.  Or Matt Joyce.  Or Charlie Culberson.  Or Johan Camargo.

Like any of those choices?  Didn’t think so.

This path just isn’t likely – but particularly for Inciarte.  He’s still owed quite a bit of money ($16 million after 2019) and the Braves have developed a particular distaste for ‘dead’ money.

Beyond that, there might be a mutiny in the clubhouse if Markakis were jettisoned.

So which option is most likely?  Austin Riley forced his way to the majors in the first place; he might have to force the decision to continue to keep him on board.

We knew this collision might be coming.  We’re now less than 3 weeks away from that call.  In that time period, auditions will be taking place, for there are 25 slots and 26 players.