Atlanta Braves sweep in San Diego, so what’s wrong?
Why U Mad, bro? Normally a sweep is cause for celebration – and it should be. But the Atlanta Braves are still playing with fire at the ends of games.
It really is a great problem to have – the Atlanta Braves have a 7 game lead in mid-July and a team that’s really showing confidence in most aspects of the game.
There’s just this one thing: finishing games from the mound.
This is going to sound a lot like it’s about Luke Jackson… it is, but it also isn’t about him alone.
The real question that we should be asking is whether there’s someone available who can reliably finish a 9th innings while facing just 3 batters.
Let’s start with Jackson, though:
- 14 straight appearances recording exactly 1.0 innings of work
- 4 times faced exactly 3 batters.
- 6 times allowed no hits
- 8 times allowed no walks
- 10 times allowed no runs
On Saturday night’s thrill ride, the Braves entered the home half of the night with a 3 run lead and won… a 2-run margin leaving the bases loaded and striking out a pitcher on a full count.
It’s okay for a reliever to have just a 2-pitch arsenal. However, at least one of those pitches needs to be the “strike”. If “strike” isn’t working, nothing else matters.
That’s somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but it matters: Jackson gave up 2 hits and 2 walks Saturday throwing 16 strikes (or pitches swung at) against 12 balls (57%).
Others had the same problem:
- Minter: 9 strikes in 16 pitches (56%)
- Swarzak: 8 strikes in 15 pitches (53%)
- Newcomb: 15 strikes in 26 pitches (58%)
- … all of these were 1 inning stints… none facing the minimum.
Since we’re not really picking on Jackson specifically, let’s check A.J. Minter, since he’s occasionally called upon to finish games. He finished up on Sunday after also throwing a Saturday inning. Let’s check his recent chart:
- 16 appearances since May 7 with 1.0 inning or less of work
- 2 times faced the minimum for the outs he recorded.
- 8 times allowed no hits
- 7 times allowed no walks
- 10 times allowed no runs
We can go further, but the point is pretty clear: the Atlanta Braves are regularly sweating out the 8th and 9th innings.
Cleaning House is Difficult
The last time Atlanta had a 1-2-3 ninth inning to close out a victory… with any kind of lead… was on Jun 28 while beating the Mets 6-2 (Luke Jackson, non-save situation).
The last save situation with a clean inning executed happened 2 days prior to that: A.J. Minter beating down the Cubs with a 5-3 final score.
While they’re somehow making it work… that’s what the standings tell us; that’s what the bullpen ERA charts tell us… it certainly feels like the club is writing checks that they won’t be able to cash come playoff time.
Clearly, there is a recognition of bullpen need in the Braves’ front office. That’s why they were in the hunt for Craig Kimbrel before he signed with the Cubs.
While the recent rumors have been more about the starting rotation, the bullpen will certainly continue to be a focus over the next 2 weeks.
How are potential trade targets faring?
While this outlines the complaint, the real question is whether anything can be done about it.
Check the numbers from these relievers in their most recent couple of months:
- SHANE GREENE, DET: 14 outings; 1.0 innings each; 5 clean frames.
- KIRBY YATES, SDP: 20 outings; 1+ innings each; 13 clean outings*
- *Had 8 of 9 in one stretch
- *Only 3 in last 8 outings
- BRAD HAND, CLE: 16 outings, 0.0 to 2 innings; 8 clean outings*
- *Most of these in late May/Early June
- WILL SMITH, SFG: 19 outings, 0.2-1.0 innings; 9 clean outings
- ALEX COLOME, CHW: 19 outings, 0-1.2 innings; 9 clean outings*
- *Most of these from late May through June.
- SERGIO ROMO, MIA: 19 outings, 0.2-2.0 innings; 7 clean outings*
- 4 of 5 outings were clean within 8 days of May 30.
- KEN GILES, TOR: 19 outings, 1.0-1.1 innings; 10 clean outings*
- 6 in a row before mid-May
Just to note: those numbers are about ‘perfection’ – the minimum number of batters faced while giving up no walks or hits.
If you allow for 1 extra batter (via hit or walk), then the numbers look even better as they often shut down the opposition without overt drama.
For all of these trade targets – however, most of them seem to be losing a bit of their effectiveness as their best work took place in May and early June.
All of these pitchers – save for Romo (3.58) – have walk rates under 3 batters per 9 innings. Brad Hand, to take a random example, is throwing 67% strikes.
So… you could quite literally take any of these pitchers, plug them into the Atlanta Braves bullpen, and see an improvement.
That needs to be done, for playoff teams will not be nearly as forgiving in the 9th inning with games on the line as are 3rd and 4th place opponents.
Let’s hope a deal can be struck. The edge of my seat is tired of me living on it.