Can this Atlanta Braves offense succeed in the postseason?
The offense of the Atlanta Braves has been one of the best in baseball in 2019, but is it an offense built to succeed in the postseason?
Home runs certainly are the trend in baseball this season, and the Atlanta Braves have joined in on the fun.
But something that has really concerned me lately is that the Braves are relying on home runs in order to score.
During their recent five-game winning streak, 16 of the 24 runs they scored came from home runs.
And even in their loss on Tuesday night, the only run they scored came on a solo home run.
Over their last six games they are 9-for-37 with runners in scoring position. That .243 average is well below their season average of .264, which still only ranks them 15th in all of baseball.
Now, when you’re getting three-run home runs all the time, that RISP number doesn’t really matter. But what happens when you aren’t getting that crooked number home run?
And that’s what scares me the most about this offense going into the postseason.
We’ve turned into a lineup full of players that are seemingly all-or-nothing. We’ve forgotten how to score by doing the little things.
And maybe that’s the way of the past, and maybe that’s not how you win games in 2019. But one thing I do believe is — that’s how you win in the postseason.
Last year during the regular season the Boston Red Sox finished ninth in baseball in home runs. They also struck out the fifth fewest times, while drawing the sixth most walks.
In the regular season they hit a home run every 27 at-bats. That number was slightly worse in the postseason when they homered once every 29 at-bats.
They struck out every 4.2 at-bats in the postseason, which was a little worse than their 4.5 average in the regular season.
You compare that to the Atlanta Braves who struck out every 3.8 at-bats in the postseason last year, and this year’s team that is striking out every 4 at-bats.
When you consider that in the postseason you’re facing the best pitchers in baseball, it’s going to be a lot harder to hit home runs, and it’s easier to strikeout.
The Atlanta Braves have to find other ways to score runs and put the ball in play.
In the Braves last four losses, the starting pitchers for those games have been Brandon Woodruff, Caleb Smith, Aaron Nola, and Noah Syndergaard.
Those are all pretty good names, and those are the types of pitchers we will face in the playoffs.
Of those four, Woodruff and Nola are obviously the best, and those are the two who really shut us down.
The pitching failed us a bit against those other two starters, but we didn’t exactly light them up either.
Look, this offense is elite. It’s easily a top 10 offense in all of baseball, and it’s a top 5 offense in the National League.
But even with all the home runs, they are just 21st in baseball in home runs per at-bat hitting one in every 22 at-bats. Everyone is hitting home runs this season.
But when it comes postseason time, the team that knows how to manufacturer runs in different ways is the team that will come out on top. It’s been proven over-and-over again throughout history.
And again, maybe that changes this year with the baseballs possibly being juiced. But until I actually see this type of offense succeed throughout the postseason, I won’t believe it’s possible.
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The Dodgers put up 16 runs on the Phillies Monday night, including a six-run fourth where they didn’t hit a single home run.
In that fourth inning, they scored on a double, four singles — including a bunt single — and a steal of home.
Later they would add to their lead with some home runs, but they showed me they can score in a multitude of ways.
To this point, this Atlanta Braves lineup has not shown me it’s capable of doing that just yet.
Down the stretch, I would like to see them try to be more diverse as an offense. They need to steal more bases and do a better job of putting the ball in play.
Ronald Acuna Jr. stole second base twice in Tuesday’s game with one out, which is what I like to see, but neither time could Dansby Swanson or Freddie Freeman take advantage with a hit.
We can’t just sit back and always wait for that three-run homer. Because in the postseason, those won’t come very often.