Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: bullpen woes, Ronald Acuna

It’s an epidemic. Bullpens around the league are giving ulcers to fans and coaches everywhere. It’s even worse this season, though.

There’s a recurring dream in my head. Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker is standing at the blackboard of a high school classroom… except that he looks like actor Ben Stein from the movie Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and he’s going through an analytics lesson – asking if “anyone?…. anyone?” can go to the mound and get 3 outs.

The class – full of relief pitchers – is in various stages of descent towards a coma.

The Atlanta Braves are suffering through this bullpen transition… but so is everyone else.

It’s a bit unusual, too: in reviewing the past 54 seasons of pitching (not coincidentally corresponding to the Braves’ arrival in Atlanta), relief pitchers have had a worse ERA than starters on only 7 occasions.

6 of these happened in the years 1967-1973, skipping 1970. The worst margin was 0.27.

That was also a bit of a different era – dominant starting pitching was the norm and not the exception:

In 1972, Steve Carlton went 27-10 for a terrible Phillies team with a 1.97 ERA and a stunning 11.1 fWAR
1968 saw Denny McLain win 31 games with a 1.96 ERA.. and he wasn’t even the best pitcher that year (Luis Tiant threw a 1.60 ERA and Bob Gibson recorded a 1.12 in the National League.
Pitching was so ‘OP’ in 1968 that the mound was lowered in 1969 to try and achieve some better balance for the offense… so Gibson’s ERA the next season was ‘only’ 2.18.
Overall, the starters averaged 2.93 ERAs in 1968 and 3.54 in 1969 (I guess the change worked).
It wasn’t a relievers game back then: the 1960’s typically saw only 6500-7500 innings for all relief pitchers. 2019 is on a record pace that could hit 17,800.

Heck, starting pitchers are down to throwing just 26,000 innings per year…which would be a record low.

But the 7th year with a higher bullpen ERA than for starters? Right now… this season.

Bullpen Havoc

This is a case in which pitching isn’t dominant… in fact it’s languishing badly. The new baseball is wreaking havoc on mounds everywhere, but for some reason it’s worse for the relievers.

Starter ERA: 4.54
- up from 4.19 in 2018 and the highest since 2007.
- the record is 4.82, set in 1999 (the midst of the steroid era)
Bullpen ERA: 4.55
- it’s not a big difference, to be sure, but it’s higher
- this is up by close to half a run per game (4.08 in 2018)
- it’s also very close to the record worst: 2000 season… 4.58

In the second half of the season (i.,e., since the All-Star Break), the Atlanta Braves’ relievers have not been the worst out there.

They are the second worst, though… as of the most recent numbers this morning, Colorado is at a 7.01 ERA; Atlanta 6.86.

Oddly enough, things actually were slightly improved last night despite Josh Tomlin ‘taking one for the team’ in giving up 4 runs.

But all you have to know about the state of bullpen affairs was to watch the beautiful shots that Fox Sports South captured last night as the bottom of the 9th inning put major doubt into the psyche of Mets fans who could see the game – and their season – collapsing right in front of their eyes.

This despite the fact that their relievers ranked 8th since the break with a 4.08 ERA.

But last night notwithstanding, perhaps an extra inning from a starter isn’t a bad thing. No one is allowed to work through adversity anymore, so perhaps it’s a barrier to success when adversity hits.

Certainly this would limit exposure to a bullpen where teams suddenly get excited when they no longer have to face a starter who is getting the job done.

The Acuna Downside?

The chase of 40/40 for Ronald Acuna Jr. is all the rage, but lately he’s been a bit of an all-or-nothing hitter.

Consider this: since 1950, 98 players have streaks of 19 games or more in which they have at least 1 strikeout in a game they batted in.

Some batters – Jack Cust, Austin Jackson, Aaron Judge, Trevor Story… a couple of others… are on this list twice. Josh Donaldson had a streak of 20 himself earlier this season.

More from Tomahawk Take

Judge is #1 on this list with 37 games (2017), besting Adam Dunn‘s 36 (from 2011-2012).

Ronald Acuna just ended a streak of 21 earlier this week… just barely avoiding the ignominy of having the longest streak as a Brave.

That distinction belongs to Melvin Upton Jr. … 22 games in 2014.

Weirdly, baseball-reference gives us the batting averages of these players during these strikeout streaks. Predictably, they are almost always low.

But among these top 98 K-streaks… Acuna’s batting average is the highest at .330.

So not to worry… and after a 2 game K-hiatus, Acuna struck out 3 times on Thursday night.

Next. Better to Start Ender or End Ender?. dark

And then he homered.

Home/Braves News