The 2019 Atlanta Braves get a playoff berth thanks to math and schedules

It’s official… the Atlanta Braves will be playing in October 2019… but it wasn’t all together obvious.

The Atlanta Braves got mad and destroyed the Nationals over the final three innings on Saturday.  There’s probably a Bruce Banner quote that’s applicable here somewhere, but we’ll gloss over that for today.

This shellacking didn’t eliminate the Nats, but it did put the Braves into the post-season.

This doesn’t have anything (much) to do with Atlanta’s ‘magic number’ (which now stands at four), but it does have something to do with the schedules of everyone else still involved.

The Dodgers are already in as winners of the NL West.  That leaves 4 playoff berths:  the East, the Central, and 2 Wild Card slots.

It’s pretty clear that Atlanta will win the East… but this exercise isn’t about the obvious… it’s about the worst case scenarios.

Now at 93-57 on the season, Atlanta has 12 games remaining.  The worst they can possibly do is an 0-12 finish for a 93-69 record.

Conversely, let’s look at the best that everyone else involved can do:

• Washington:  81-66.  15 games remain.  Best record:  96-66.
• St. Louis:  83-64.  15 games remain.  Best record 98-64.
• Chi-Cubs:  80-68.  14 games remain.  Best record 94-68.
• Milwaukee:  78-69. 15 games remain.  Best record 93-69.
• Philadelphia:  76-70.  16 games remain.  Best record 92-70.
• NY Mets:  76-71.  15 games remain.  Best record 91-71.

First off:  the Mets and Philly are out – they cannot catch the Braves.  They are still in the Wild Card hunt, but for our purposes today, they cannot impact Atlanta’s playoff chances.

As for the rest, all of them would have to match or beat Atlanta at 93 wins in order to at least force a Game 163… the only chance to eliminate the Braves.

So right away:  there’s at least a play-in game for the last Wild Card berth for Atlanta.  But can we say more about this?

Nobody said there would be Math

So we’re down to 5 teams for 4 slots.  Can we eliminate any of these?

Before the night’s over, we might regardless:  St. Louis and Milwaukee are playing one another and that games is 3-2 Brewers in the 7th.  A Milwaukee loss, and this is all a moot point… their maximum record would be reduced to 92-70.

As for the rest, it’s that head-to-head thing that matters here:  the Cardinals still have 7 games against the Cubs.  As a result, one of those teams can’t achieve the best-case scenario from above:  it’s simply impossible.

Also:  the Cards face Washington for 3 games… and Milwaukee for 1 more tomorrow.

So let’s look at the REAL worst-case scenario for Atlanta:  and it’s all about the Cubs and Cardinals… Milwaukee and Washington aren’t significantly involved.

• To reach as high as 93-69, the Cubs must finish 13-1.
• Chicago finishing 13-1 means beating St. Louis in at least 6 of those 7 head-to-head games… so the Cardinals could do no better than 92-70… keeping them from catching Atlanta.
• Even if the Cardinals managed as many as 92 wins in that scenario, Milwaukee would have to be eliminated since St. Louis would have to win today and on Sunday to make that happen.
• Likewise, to reach 92 wins, Washington would have to be swept by St. Louis, reducing them to 93 wins (maximum).

In other words, there is no scenario in which the Cubs and Cardinals both match-or-exceed 93 wins.  In fact, there’s no scenario in which more than one of the Cubs/Cards/Brewers can reach 93 wins.

You can concoct a scenario in which the Nats and either Cubs or Cards join Atlanta at 93 wins or more, but that’s still going to leave the Braves with a playoff spot even if the Braves lose every game the rest of the way (and it would truly have to be a stunning set of events to make that happen anyway).

So yes…  while the division is still technically up for grabs, the die has been cast:  the Braves have clinched a berth in the post-season for 2019.

You’re welcome.