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Atlanta Braves: 5 early keys to beating the Cardinals in the NLDS

By Alan Carpenter

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 20: Pitching coach Mike Maddux #31 of the St. Louis Cardinals visits the mound to talk with Michael Wacha #52 of the St. Louis Cardinals, center, during the third inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on September 20, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 20: Pitching coach Mike Maddux #31 of the St. Louis Cardinals visits the mound to talk with Michael Wacha #52 of the St. Louis Cardinals, center, during the third inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on September 20, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /
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ST LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 16: Marcell Ozuna #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals drives in two runs with a ground-rule double against the Washington Nationals in the seventh inning at Busch Stadium on September 16, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 16: Marcell Ozuna #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals drives in two runs with a ground-rule double against the Washington Nationals in the seventh inning at Busch Stadium on September 16, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

While things can still change, it appears that the Cardinals are the first playoff opponent of the Atlanta Braves.  Here are some early thoughts on this matchup.

The Atlanta Braves (95-60) won 4 games in 6 tries against the St. Louis Cardinals (88-67) in 2019, though it’s arguable whether either team is comparable enough to what they were like back in mid-to-late May when those games took place.

For the record, here’s how the scores went this year:

  • May 14, @ATL:  Cards 14, Braves 3 (Jack Flaherty beat Mike Foltynewicz)
  • May 15, @ATL:  Braves 4, Cards 0 (Mike Soroka over Michael Wacha)
  • May 16, @ATL:  Braves 10, Cards 2 (Julio Teheran over Adam Wainwright)
  • May 24, @STL:  Braves 5, Cards 2 (Folty over Mike Mikolas)
  • May 25, @STL:  Cards 6, Braves 3 (Andrew Miller over Dan Winkler), with St. Louis scoring 4 in the bottom of the 8th.  Soroka and Daniel Hudson started.
  • May 26, @STL:  Braves 4, Cards 3 (10 inns, Jacob Webb over Tyler Webb), with Atlanta scoring 3 in the 9th to tie.  Teheran and Flaherty started.

After a quick start to the 2019 season (20-10), the St. Louis Cardinals were terrible for the entire month of May, going 6-18 between May 2 and May 29 – two of those wins coming in those 6 games against Atlanta.

At that point, they had lost that entire advantage and stood at 26-28 overall.  The Cardinals continued to flounder until the All-Star Break, coming in for a 44-44 landing, and then losing the 1st game back to put them a game under… for the last time.

Since that loss, St. Louis has been rolling:  44-22.

We all know how much the Nationals had been touting their record ‘since May 24’… at least until about a week ago… well, St. Louis has quietly been running the best NL record since the All-Star break (44-23).

Atlanta?  The second best record (41-23).

St. Louis has also been hammering the baseball – their run differential has been piling up during the Summer… now +100 as of this writing.  It was +2 at the break.

How have they been doing this?  Here are their strengths:

  • Extra Inning games:  8-3
  • Bottom feeding:  12-7 vs. Reds; 14-5 vs. Pirates; 5-2 vs. Rockies.
  • They also beat up the Nats and Mets:  5-2 apiece in their 7 game season sessions.  These 4 opponents account for all of their current 21 games above .500… plus a bit more.
  • They are tough at home:  49-29 (there’s that +20 games over .500 again).

Otherwise, there was no ‘dominance’… they are 39-38 against teams with records at-or-above .500; 49-29 against lesser foes.

With that as an introduction, let’s see what the Braves need to do to beat this club in a 5-game series.

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