Why the Atlanta Braves should not resign Dallas Keuchel
By Clint Manry
Decisions regarding the Atlanta Braves 2020 starting rotation will surely be tough ones to make this offseason, but there’s at least one that should be somewhat of a no-brainer.
For what it’s worth, the Dallas Keuchel project in 2019 was a complete success. The Atlanta Braves needed a seasoned starter for its rotation, and if you take into account the entire body of work, that’s exactly what Keuchel provided.
In March — right on the heels of the Philadelphia Phillies signing of outfielder Bryce Harper — our Jake Mastroianni wrote a couple of pieces explaining why and how the Braves could obtain Keuchel.
At that time, and given all of the unknowns regarding the upcoming 2019 season, I would speculate that most Braves fans were in favor of the organization pursuing Keuchel (including me). I’d call it perhaps 70-30 or 60-40 in favor of acquiring the veteran lefty.
I also believe that those of us that wanted Keuchel were right. The Atlanta Braves engaged in a rather low-risk deal, paying Keuchel $13 million for his services in 2019, which was, in fact, a lesser cost than what the Houston Astros had reportedly offered him in early March.
But just because it was right in 2019 doesn’t make it right for 2020.
I believe this is a classic case of quit while you’re ahead. There’s no need in pushing the boundaries of the team’s return on investment. In 2019, the Braves’ low-risk investment was a success, but this time the need doesn’t fit the price.
The cost isn’t worthwhile this time
Before even discussing Keuchel’s talents and recent performance, we must first consider the cost, which for this upcoming season appears to exceed a logical sum, given the Braves particular position.
We Braves fans may expect something more than Dallas Keuchel in 2020, and that his performance last season was good but not great (I feel like that’s the general feeling among Braves Country, but I could be wrong).
But the truth is… Keuchel’s 2019 season was an absolute success for him, and will certainly earn him more than $13 million for the 2020 season.
I can assure you that there will be a rather long list of teams willing to pay at least $20 million (per season) for a 31-year-old lefty that’s coming off a campaign in which he posted a 3.75 ERA and generated a 60.1% ground ball rate, especially considering he wasn’t able to experience a Spring Training last season, plus given the ridiculous home run craze of 2019.
But regardless of how great Keuchel’s 2019 season was — and how much we appreciate what he contributed to the rotation — it’s not in the Braves best interest to pursue Keuchel; not with the team’s other more pressing priorities (like resigning Josh Donaldson, or just simply filling holes in the bullpen).
According to Tomahawk Take co-editor, Alan Carpenter, the Braves should have around $40-55 million to spend for the 2020 season. As for as big expenditures, the team’s better off resigning Donaldson — given Austin Riley isn’t fully ready.
Not to mention, I think this is the year the Braves must acquire a viable stopgap in right field that can provide a bit more thump than Nick Markakis (and by thump, I don’t just mean offense).
Handing over a multi-year deal that’s possibly paying Keuchel $20-25 million per season will really hinder the Braves’ ability to fill Markakis’ spot until either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters are ready.
I guess you you could say the same about handing that kind of money to Donaldson, but JD also provides 40 homers and 100+ RBI, plus excellent defense on a daily basis. But everyone has their preferences on who the Braves should keep, and really there are quite a few worthy scenarios.
Overall, the cost just isn’t going to make sense. And even if Keuchel can be had for a reasonable price, say $18 million or so (AAV), is it worth it to spend roughly 40% of the season’s budget to obtain him?
With Mike Soroka’s breakout in 2019, as well as Max Fried’s, the Braves now have two capable top-of-the-rotation pieces on the staff that are cost-controlled and cheap. If the Braves want to hand out a contract to another starter, it just makes more sense to go big on an ace, regardless of whether or not signing Donaldson is in the plans.
Obviously, the Atlanta Braves won’t be able to check off every box this offseason or even in mid-2020. There’s just not enough money.
But no matter which route the organization takes regarding Donaldson or Markakis or even Julio Teheran, signing Dallas Keuchel is not the right move this time around.
What do you think? Should the Braves resign Dallas Keuchel this offseason?