Atlanta Braves should dump that draft-pick for a starting pitcher
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves value draft picks highly and haven’t surrendered one since the rebuild began. The rebuild is over; it’s time to let that draft pick go.
The last draft-pick the Atlanta Braves surrendered willingly, going to the Rays after the ill-fated deal for former outfielder and current YouTube baseball announcer B.J. Upton. Holding onto every draft pick since was the best way to replenish the Minor League system.
Over the years, fans saw top-of-the-line free-agents passed by because they had the dreaded Qualifying Offer (QO) attached as well as a high price tag. The immediate reaction of most fans is either:
- Never give up a draft pick, he might be the next Mike Piazza.
- Prospects are currency; we don’t have this guy yet, so buy that star instead!
- I want the star, but I love my prospects so much, and the next one may be my true love
Most fans understand that the draft is a lottery, and most lottery tickets are losers. Even a winning ticket might return less than you paid for gas yesterday. What are the odds in this lottery? Or how many of our prized purchases fail to cause a blip on Major League Baseball’s radar?
Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper ($$ – this pots appears free) did the research, so I can answer that question: “quite a lot… for the odds are long”.
"The answer is less than one in five . . . from 1981-2010, 17.6 percent of players who were drafted and signed ended up making it to the majors . . . Looking at how many draftees end up serving as more than a callup/fill-in sees that number drops dramatically . . . rarely are there 100 draftees (who) produce 0.1 WAR. Only 9.8 percent of draftees who signed . . . register 0.1 career WAR, which is roughly 83 players per season."
That’s the real issue for teams’; what’s the future value of that draft pick? Put another way, what’s the team’s return on their investment in that commodity (player)?