3 Atlanta Braves rookie of the year candidates for 2020
By Clint Manry
With the 2019 Rookie of the Year awards set to be announced on Monday, let’s take a way-too-early look at potential favorites for the award in 2020.
The Atlanta Braves have developed quite a reputation when it comes to exhibiting talented rookie players. Since 2000, the Braves organization has taken home three National League Rookie of the Year awards.
Three trophies in 20 years may not seem all that impressive, but the Braves have hit the jackpot with its rookies more than any other NL organization in that span, save for of course, wait for it… the Miami Marlins (two of the Marlins’ RoY awards came when the team was still named Florida).
Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2018, Craig Kimbrel in 2011 and shortstop Rafael Furcal in 2000 — all put together incredible first years as rookies, and even more so as seasoned big league contributors (of course Acuna is just getting started).
Sure, there have been a few one-hit wonders from time to time, but all-in-all, becoming the game’s best rookie is usually a great indicator to gauge a player’s future by. As in, it’s really hard to win a RoY award.
And so, predicting a RoY winner is quite a difficult task too, as small-sample sizes and various other unknown characteristics are literally built into the exercise.
To be a ROOKIE, batters mustn’t have more than 130 at-bats and pitchers 50 innings pitched at the major league level, all while NOT reaching 45 days on an active (25-man) big league roster.
In turn, projecting the game’s best Rookie player involves quite a bit of guesswork. There are numerous variables in play, including but not limited to: playing time, health, team performance, plain old luck and even front office competence. Neither of which can be predetermined with any real notion of confidence.
But it’s the offseason and this is what we do, right? So with the 2019 Rookie of the Year awards set to be announced on Monday, all I have to do is select three players that could become favorites during the 2020 season.
And considering catcher Alex Jackson is the only rookie position-player currently left on the team’s 40-man, the best chance the Braves have at winning a 2020 NL RoY will most likely come from one of its highly ranked pitching prospects, right?
(If you’re wondering, Austin Riley surpassed the rookie-status threshold in 2019, accruing 274 at-bats.)
So, to make this exercise a bit easier to manage, let’s talk our way through this. First, we’ll look at a list of eligible Braves players, featuring rookies that have a shot to contribute to the major leagues this upcoming season..
Heavy with rookie pitchers
Going back to the Rookie status requirements in the first slide, I have created a list of Braves major and minor league players that are currently on the team’s 40-man roster AND that also fit inside those at-bats and innings pitched parameters (with the addition of Cristian Pache and Drew Waters… because they’re awesome!).
Of course Pache will be added to the 40 this season (sometime before November 20), as he will need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, which will be December 12.
This list isn’t necessarily the ONLY possible Braves RoY in 2020, but these are the most realistic choices when considering service time and each prospect’s current minor league level (Triple-A)
- SP, Kyle Wright
- SP, Bryse Wilson
- SP, Ian Anderson
- RP, Jeremy Walker
- RP, Chad Sobotka
- SP, Touki Toussaint
- RP, Jacob Webb
- SP/RP, Patrick Weigel
- SP, RP, Huascar Ynoa
- C, Alex Jackson
- OF, Cristian Pache
- OF, Drew Waters
As you can see… lots of pitchers in this pool of players. But it wouldn’t be any fun to pick ONLY pitchers, so here are three Braves candidates for 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, including each player’s major league experience, plus — since FanGraphs just recently released its 2020 Steamer projections — I’ll share their Steamer and Baseball Reference numbers.
The three are listed from unlikeliest to likeliest candidates…