The Braves could look to Baltimore again for starting pitching
With the news of Dylan Bundy being available, there is a chance the Atlanta Braves could take a shot at the once-promising prospect.
The Atlanta Braves are sure to be looking for a frontline starting pitcher to place atop the rotation this offseason. But if those pitchers get out of their range, they could look for potential upside plays.
And there might not be any starting pitcher available with more upside than Baltimore Orioles starter Dylan Bundy.
The Braves and Orioles hooked up for pitching a couple of seasons ago when Atlanta traded for Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day. That move worked out to varying degrees, so maybe the two sides hook up again.
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Orioles are actively looking to trade the 27-year-old righty.
The Orioles are working to trade RHP Dylan Bundy, according to a source. No deal is imminent, but one appears to be getting close. The 27-year-old went 7-14 with a 4.79 ERA last season, and he's entering the second of three arbitration-eligible seasons.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 27, 2019
Bundy was a can’t miss prospect after being drafted fourth overall in the 2011 MLB Draft.
He remained a top 20 prospect by MLB.com from 2012-2015, reaching as high as number two.
In three Minor League seasons (he missed all of 2013 to injury) he posted a 2.59 ERA in 167 innings with 181 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.05.
Bundy made his debut in 2012 pitching just 1.2 innings before being shut down and missing all of 2013.
He returned in 2016 with the Orioles but has been very inconsistent and downright terrible at times in the big leagues.
In 614.1 innings with the Orioles, he has a career ERA of 4.67 with 602 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.33.
FanGraphs had him as a 2.5 WAR player in 2019 despite a 4.79 ERA in 161.2 innings with 162 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.35.
By comparison, only Mike Soroka (4.0) and Max Fried (3.0) had a higher WAR among pitchers for the Braves in 2019.
I know WAR isn’t everything, but it does show there is some potential upside for Bundy, especially if you get him out of Camden Yards with the Orioles defense behind him.
His K/9 of 9.02 in 2019 is in line with his career norms; however, his walk rate of 3.23 BB/9 was a bit higher than usual.
He had a BABIP of .297, which isn’t terribly high (Soroka had a .280 BABIP) but if you put a good defense behind him that drops a good bit.
FanGraphs had him with an xFIP of 100 in 2019, which ranks as average.
In 2019 Bundy decreased his fastball rate to just 50 percent and increased his change-up percentage to 17.3 percent, while his slider (22.8 percent) and curveball (9.9 percent) stayed around his career norms.
His fastball has gone from being elite when he could pump it up to the mid-90s to average at 91-92 MPH.
At best I think Bundy could be a number two starter if you put a better defense behind him and he gets his BB/9 rate back under two.
Then I could see him finishing with an ERA close to 3.25 with a K/9 of 9 and a WHIP around 1.20.
But again, that’s his ceiling at this point and it doesn’t look very likely.
Bundy is projected to make $5.7 million in arbitration next season and has one more year of control for 2021 in arbitration.
I’m not saying the Braves should be targeting Bundy, but it’s hard to ignore the potential upside that he possesses.
If the Orioles are trying to give him away, it could make sense for the Braves to buy low and hope he becomes a mid-to-top of the rotation starter in his final two years.
Again, he’s been through a lot of injuries and is still just 27-years-old.
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It’s a risky play and one I don’t see the Braves making unless they get desperate. But somebody is going to take a chance on him, and for his sake, I hope it’s a place where he can finally blossom into the star we thought he would be.