Atlanta Braves watching as Phillies spend their way out of contention?
Could it be that one of the Atlanta Braves chief rivals can’t complete their off-season adjustments simply because they’ve run out of money?
Okay, Atlanta Braves fans: imagine this… our team signs Gerrit Cole to a long-term deal, but then helplessly watches other teams win because the entire budget was blown on that one player.
That’s effectively the word out of Philadelphia this morning as writers are assessing the internal fallout for what may be a Pyrrhic victory in getting Zack Wheeler to sign with them for $118 million over the next 5 years as widely announced on Wednesday.
In their case, it wasn’t just one big contract to one player… it has been several overpays to several players, and now… several more are still needed to fill out their team for 2020.
Here’s Matt Gelb in The Athletic (paywall):
"This is the equation: The Phillies need an infielder, one more starting pitcher and at least three relievers. They must fill those holes while operating on a budget. One estimate of their current payroll, when calculated for luxury-tax purposes, puts them at $188 million (including projected salaries for their arbitration-eligible players). That leaves roughly $20 million to solve the equation."
For all of those needs… $20 million isn’t much at all.
In Atlanta, we’re doing our own hand-wringing over spending that’s roughly now at the $137-138 million level with third base still the biggest unresolved need.
But that’s one position… not five.
Coming Home to Roost
The numbers tell a daunting story out of Philly.
In 2020, the Phillies actually get a slight break in Jake Arrieta’s contract, as he gets “only” $20 million – a decrease from the $25 million he was paid in 2019. However, his AAV is what counts for luxury tax purposes, and that’s still $25 million.
Bryce Harper’s deal is fully kicked in starting in 2020, counting $27.5 million against the luxury tax threshold.
Jay Bruce – remember him? – is going to account for $13 million. Jean Segura is at $14 million. Andrew McCutchen costs $16.6 million while Aaron Nola and David Robertson each account for $11.5 million.
5 other players ring the luxury tax bell for $8 million or more.
To put that into perspective, a luxury tax threshold of $208 million can be reached if every man on a 26 man active roster is getting exactly $8 million.
The Phillies now have 3 players who have tripled this average with ten others at or above this average.
That’s half the roster.
At the end of this past season, the COTS spreadsheet had the Phils with a projected payroll of $194 million. Having committed $23.6 million to Zack Wheeler, they would have been over the $208 million tax threshold if it weren’t for some additional changes made in the meantime.
Dropping Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco ‘saved’ them nearly $13 million, but as noted, these minor updates leave precious little space for sorting out third base, bolstering the bullpen, or adding to their bench – let alone adding additional quality starting pitching.
Philadelphia obviously felt that getting a premium starting pitcher was their most critical need of the off-season, though Wheeler oddly seems to profile as perhaps the first free agent to get such a contract based more on analytics than actual performance.
It seems fairly clear now that the Phillies could not have made a serious run at either Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. That would have been a contractual leap of an additional order of magnitude – and it would have pushed them almost immediately into penalty territory – a place they do not wish to visit.
"The Wheeler signing, in all likelihood, will be the team’s biggest acquisition of the winter. The front office is operating under a directive to remain below the $208 million threshold that triggers the luxury tax, according to multiple team sources."
That means Philadelphia gets:
- No Bumgarner
- No Donaldson
- They weren’t serious bidders on Cole Hamels (a radio interview with a Philly beat writer this morning suggested an offer ‘about half’ of Atlanta’s)
- … and it also explains why they were out on Moustakas
Heck, even the idea that they could turn to Didi Gregorius for infield support is looking dicey. They could end up having to go with an internal option.
It Gets Better
J.T. Realmuto is looking for a contract extension as he enters his last arbitration year… that’s going to have to wait until 2021 when Arrieta comes off the books (they’ll almost certainly have to decline his option).
That could cause the catcher’s agent to suggest a wait-and-see approach… which honestly would be a savvy move. Realmuto is projected to get $10 million this season, but an early extension could have pushed that higher.
Hard to see that happening now.
Iimagine losing the best catcher in baseball because you couldn’t afford to take care of him while everybody else around him is getting paid.
Last off-season, the catch-phrase was ‘stupid money’. As we list off the checks being written in Philadelphia, this wasn’t just a one-time event. It’s apparent they’ve been spending stupid for a while… and now that’s going to bite them.