Atlanta Braves: Pitchers most likely to win ’20 Cy Young (Part 2)
By Seth Carter
Making a Cy Young winner, Part Deux. In part one we reviewed what it takes statistically to be a Cy Young winner. In part two we take a look at the Braves pitchers most likely to win the coveted award.
In Part One we analyzed what it takes to win a Cy Young and how a winner of the prestigious award is constructed. We also broke the article off half-way through so your legs would not fall asleep (for those of you reading on the john). Part One can be found here.
In Part Two we take a look at the four Braves‘ pitchers most likely to win a Cy Young and lead the Atlanta Braves back to the World Series in 2020. Here’s a quick rundown of the slides to come.
- Cole Hamels
- Mike Foltynewicz
- Max Fried
- Mike Soroka
Cole Hamels
Despite all of his accolades and storied career, Hamels has never won a Cy Young. He has finished in the top eight on four occasions* and he has a World Series MVP to his name, so he’s been in the conversation, but he doesn’t have a Cy Young sitting on the mantle next to his Super Nintendo (cause he’s old).
Hamels has a career ERA of 3.42* with 14 years of experience in the big leagues. For his career, Hamels has pitched to a 44.9% groundball rate with a smooth 11.8% flyball to home run ratio.
Hamels will need to show he can stay healthy for the duration of the season. At 36-years-old I’m inclined to say he’s a long shot to win the Cy Young, but Justin Verlander has had quite a resurgence in his old age. Also, Charlie Morton found himself third in Cy Young voting in the AL last year at the age of 35.
Morton doesn’t have the history or pedigree of Cole Hamels. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Hamels to take the weight of Atlanta’s playoff hopes on his back and find a way to put his name in the Cy Young Race.
He planted several seeds of hope last season. Prior to the All-Star break, he posted a 2.98 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. He struck out 97 batters in 99.2 innings. During the first half, he only walked 2.85 hitters per nine innings. After the injury, the second half was a different story.
His first half will tell you that it wasn’t necessarily the story of an aging pitcher struggling to hang on, but a guy who admittedly rushed back from an oblique injury.
"“I rushed back,” Hamels said. “When you have an oblique injury, you can’t do anything for 14-20 days. I didn’t throw. I just wasn’t able to build up the arm strength. I thought I’d be able to generate my pitches just by being out there. I thought I could just make it work. Unfortunately, my arm got tired. I basically ran before I could walk. I was never able to catch up.”"
The second-half numbers are well documented, but if Cole Hamels can maintain or build on the success of his first half, it’s not impossible that he contends for a Cy Young in 2020.
Again, it’s unlikely with his age but a sub-3.00 ERA will put you in the conversation. Let’s hope he’s healthy and ready to go in 2020!
*Sound Familiar? Please refer to notes on Tim Hudson on the previous slide. Seventeen years, 3.49 ERA, 4x top-six in Cy Young voting, 10.4% HR/FB rate, 58% groundball rate.