Are the Atlanta Braves and Twins the only clubs left pursuing Josh Donaldson?

Depending on who you believe, events of the past 24-48 hours suggest that the Nationals have thrown in the towel on Donaldson – leaving only the Twins and Atlanta Braves.

While the Atlanta Braves continue to wait for an assent from Josh Donaldson, it is possible that the field of teams angling for his signature has diminished by one.  Maybe.

While the Braves are focused on the single major hole they still have in their lineup, the rival Washington Nationals needed to fill multiple holes.

Since the new year began, they seem to have stopped waiting on Donaldson and started spending money elsewhere (multiple sources available on each of these):

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON – an agreement with relief arm Will Harris.  3 years and $24 million.
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON – an agreement with infielder Starlin Castro… for second base.  2 years and $12 million.
• FRIDAY EVENING – an agreement with reliever David Hernandez; likely a minor league deal with a Spring invite attached.
• SATURDAY MORNING – an agreement to bring back 3B Asdrubal Cabrera.  $2.5 million plus some incentive possibilities.

This news comes as Ken Rosenthal noted that discussions between Washington and the Cubs about Kris Bryant have ‘gone nowhere’ as Chicago is apparently insisting on Victor Robles as part of the deal.

The Nats still have a first base hole to deal with, though the could turn to any of multiple possibilities:  former Nats Ryan Zimmerman or Matt Adams, already-signed Howie Kendrick, or a variety of free agents still on the market.

Ken Rosenthal (the man is everywhere) wrote in theAthletic last night ($$) that getting Cabrera will now allow the Nationals to stop thinking of using Carter Kieboom yet at third base as they would prefer him to refine his skills in AAA to start the year.

So after having spent $16.5 million on these players… what about their pursuit of Josh Donaldson?

In-or-Out Burger?

Rosenthal tends to agree, though in the post noted above, he suggests that the Nationals are actually working a ‘Plan B’ for third base while still waiting.

The Atlanta writers… are thinking differently:

The summation of this opinion may have been best aired by this Yankee fan – who clearly wouldn’t have a dog in this hunt:

That number’s actually up to $192.4 million by the reckoning of Roster-Resource (as now seen via fangraphs.com). The threshold above which teams begin paying penalties against their payroll is $208 million for the 2020 season… so they’re within $18 million of that marker.

[ The Braves – for comparison sake – are shown at $170.3 million now (this includes multiple items for luxury tax calculation purposes that we intentionally did not consider as part of our treatment of the subject earlier today) ].

But this last tweeter has a point:  while Trea Turner is the only true returnee on their infield, Castro is being paid as a starter while Kendrick and Cabrera can certainly do that as well.

That said, Cabrera is being paid more like a backup/bench option… and he could be used to backup second base.

So perhaps the door is indeed being left open just a crack for Josh Donaldson… though the money they just spent this week guarantees that Donaldson would be even more expensive to them:

• $27 million(-ish) a year would put the team right at $220 million (rounding the numbers)… and $12 million above the threshold.
• The COTS site believes that Washington barely exceeded the threshold in 2019.  That’s important because repeat offenders are judged more harshly.  Roster Resource has different numbers, but agrees with the conclusion – they were over the limit.
• If so, that’s a 30% tax on this estimated $12 million overage… or $3.6 million more.  It might have ‘only’ been a 20% penalty ($2.4 million) otherwise.

So – does Washington want Donaldson enough to pay him more than $30 million annually?  That’s effectively what they would be looking at.

This also explains the Nats’ interest in Kris Bryant… with an estimated $18-19 million expense for him in 2020, they might be able to make that work… or at least minimize the penalty involved.

Of course, the Cubs would have to cooperate, too.

Late Saturday Update

A fresh report suggests the Twins could be out as well… is it over now?

"sources with knowledge of the negotiations say Donaldson has not appeared interested in signing with Minnesota, and the team has begun investigating other options."

If so, then barring a late entry… it’s Atlanta.

Look – the Lerner family ownership of the Nationals is not hurting for cash… but spending extra money they don’t have to spend isn’t how the wealthy normally do business, either.

While the new year is typically when teams start to finalize rosters, these moves by Washington look like more than just that.  So while not completely shutting the door on Josh Donaldson, the writing on the wall suggests strongly that they are moving on and taking care of their own business.