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Atlanta Braves: Why the shift can’t stop Freddie Freeman

By Seth Carter

PITTSBURGH, PA - JUNE 06: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - JUNE 06: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /
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Freddie Freman of Atlanta Braves/ (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

We take a look at how the shift affects the shifty and most shifted-against Atlanta Braves’ superstar, Freddie Freeman.

The Atlanta Braves have two players in the top 10 most shifted against players in 2019. Freddie Freeman is number one on that list. We take a look at how he continues to defeat the strategy by being great at hitting a baseball.

What is the shift?

There are variations of the shift, but for the sake of this article, we’ll keep it simple. The shift is typically deployed against left-handed, pull-hitters.

Data shows certain hitters are most likely to hit groundballs to the pull-side and the shift is used to prevent those hits.

Teams are willing to give up a few dinky grounders to the left side in exchange for a net of more hits taken away by the shift.

The Data

Fangraphs tracks shift data, but there are a couple of very important things to keep in mind while reviewing this information.

-It excludes strikeouts
-It excludes walks
-It excludes home runs

Their logic behind excluding it is simply that these outcomes are not affected by the shifted fielders. Some argue that the shift causes pitchers to nibble or try to be too perfect, which could explain why guys like Braves’ Mike Soroka had a BABIP of almost .100 points higher with the shift than without in 2019.

However, for the sake of this examination, HRs, Ks, and BBs are excluded from the data.

While overall BABIP is actually a little higher with the shift than without, the argument is the shift is reducing the overall average.

-In 2019, the shift produced a .301 BABIP with a 78 wRC+.

-In 2019, no shift produced a .296 BABIP with a 75 wRC+.

On the surface, it looks like the shift didn’t work last year.

Here’s a look at the past 10 years: 2010-2019

-Shift produced a wRC+ of 81, wOBA of .294, BABIP of .301

-No Shift produced a wRC+ of 81, wOBA of .293, BABIP of .297

So, it almost looks like the shift doesn’t work, right? The argument is that the shift is working in certain situations and particularly on certain players.

On the next slide, we will take a look at the players who faced the most shifts in 2019 and how it affected them.

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