Measuring up: which big bat are the Atlanta Braves most likely to get?

We’ve looked at who’s still available and how they stack up by the stats, but none of that necessarily determines what the Atlanta Braves can actually do over the next several days.

It really seems like an eternity, but it’s not quite been six days since Josh Donaldson came to a contract agreement with the Twins – putting the Atlanta Braves into the position of having to scramble for a cleanup hitter.

All this we know, but in the days since… crickets.

Now granted – the Braves run a very tight shop under Alex Anthopoulos’ direction.  Rumors and even idle chit-chat seem to be completely locked down (which must be driving the beat writers nuts).

Seems the only things they’re getting come from player agents or the rare leak from a potential trade partner.  So maybe there’s a lot going on behind the scenes… but in the meantime, let’s try something new.

Today we’ll make some guesses about the path Atlanta might take simply based on their ability to get a transaction done.  At this time of year, the Braves might feel forced to take a path of least resistance… the easiest trade or the most desperate free agent… in order to secure the big bat of an available corner outfielder or third baseman.

Here’s the names that we’ll consider:

• Nolan Arenado
• Kris Bryant
• Nicholas Castellanos
• Trey Mancini
• Starling Marte
• Marcell Ozuna
• Joc Pederson
• Yasiel Puig
• Jose Ramirez
• Kyle Seager
• Kyle Seager with Mitch Haniger

To evaluate each, we’ll establish a point system to determine how easy each might be to obtain.  Some of these points will be objectively assigned; others subjectively.

For each category, there will be an assigned value of 0 to 10, with 0 points being “impossible” and 10 points being “absolute stone cold lock”… that puts a ‘5’ squarely in the middle for ‘neutral’.

The categories:

• Team control.   Longer control means harder to obtain.
  • 6 points for a single year; 4 for 2 years; 2 pts. for 3 years; 1 for 4.
  • In terms of free agents, the more years a player seems to expect (or is estimated) for a new contract, the lower the points:  8/6/4/2/1 for 1/2/3/4/5 year deals, respectively.
  • In the case of contracts with option years, points are based on the likelihood of the option being exercised.
• Salary considerations
  • For trade candidates:  how much is the salary a problem for that team… and for the Braves?
  • For free agents:  how much is the salary a problem for the Braves?
• Desirability (how vigorously is the player already being pursued by other clubs or if he is truly available, how many teams would want him?).  Higher points:  less desirable.
• Age considerations:  if the player is 30, he gets a ‘5’… for every year above that, he gains a point; for each year below, he loses one (ages rounded).
• Cost Considerations:  free agents  will fare better than trade candidates, though a Qualifying Offer guy (Ozuna only) will be docked points.
• Performance Considerations:  the better players will be harder to obtain
• Miscellaneous:  the intangibles or anything else that can’t be categorized otherwise

Seven categories:  therefore the highest possible score is therefore a 70.

Let’s see how this plays out…