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Podcast: Talking Braves ZiPS projections with Dan Szymborski

By Jake Mastroianni

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 16: Mike Soroka #40 of the Atlanta Braves throws a second inning pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at SunTrust Park on August 16, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 16: Mike Soroka #40 of the Atlanta Braves throws a second inning pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at SunTrust Park on August 16, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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On this special edition of the Tomahawk Take podcast, we interview Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs on his ZiPS projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Everyone loves projections this time of year, so we were fortunate enough to talk to one of the best in the business on the upcoming Atlanta Braves season.

Dan Szymborski is the creator of the popular ZiPS projections, which you can find on FanGraphs.

He just recently released his ZiPS projections for the Braves on January 21, which you can find here.

Dan and I actually talked about a week before he released these projections, and unfortunately, this podcast got put on hold because of all the news since then with Josh Donaldson signing with the Twins and the Braves signing Marcell Ozuna.

So I apologize if some of the information in the podcast is a bit outdated, but most of it should still be relevant.

One thing that I was happily surprised to see was that his ZiPS projections still have Mike Soroka as a top of the rotation starter. A lot of other projections have him taking a huge step back in 2019.

But these projections have Soroka posting a 3.32 ERA in 176 innings with 154 strikeouts.

Listen to “Special Edition: Interview with Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski” on Spreaker.

Obviously his projections came out before the Ozuna signing, but I would imagine he would be projected to be around a 2.5 WAR player in left field.

That means the Braves wouldn’t have a single position player projected under 2 WAR, which is amazing.

Another surprise that we talk about on the podcast is that the ZiPS projections are actually pretty favorable for Austin Riley. They have him hitting .252 with 29 home runs and 87 RBI over 473 at-bats.

His numbers where actually right on par with the projections he gave me for Josh Donaldson. The only difference was Donaldson had about a 100 points higher OBP because of the walks.

Next. Examining the Ozuna deal. dark

I want to thank Dan so much for taking the time to come on the podcast and discuss Braves’ projections with us. Please make sure to download and subscribe to the Tomahawk Take podcast wherever you listen.f

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