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Atlanta Braves quandry: the problem with Kris Bryant’s defense

By Alan Carpenter

ST LOUIS, MO - JULY 31: Javier Baez #9 of the Chicago Cubs mimics Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs throw to first base in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on July 31, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO - JULY 31: Javier Baez #9 of the Chicago Cubs mimics Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs throw to first base in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on July 31, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 16: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies slides into third safely before the tag by Johan Camargo in 2018. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 16: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies slides into third safely before the tag by Johan Camargo in 2018. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /

There are a number of reasons the Atlanta Braves can point to for trying to land either Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant in a trade. However, it’s defensive data that might be the most compelling in making a choice.

Prior to the signing of Marcell Ozuna, popular opinion might have seen the Atlanta Braves trade for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and install him in left field.

Not a bad idea – though that kind of arrangement would still have left a question mark at the hot corner.

Alas, that’s still where the Braves are at today with Ozuna set to take that outfield corner, though current determination appears to support starting the season with Johan Camargo in that spot.

There have been renewed calls on twitter for the Braves to go get Bryant for third base. He’d be part of an offensive juggernaut, for sure, but would the hitting outweigh his defensive shortcomings?

That’s exactly what we need to find out… but there are other factors that have to be weighed as well – we’ll get to that, too.

How good are these gloves?

For the first portion of this exercise, we’ll compare the defensive metrics of Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, the dearly departed Josh Donaldson, and the newly (re-)arriving Johan Camargo.

Austin Riley should be a part of this, too, but we simply don’t have enough metrics to work with.

As it happens, we only have limited data for Camargo – the 2018 season – so we’re just going to have to roll with that.  Not to worry, though:  this is more about Bryant for now.

All of this comes from several fangraphs.com pages (with the exception of OPS+) for the respective players, but there’s a twist:  the fielding metrics were collected and then re-scaled (as applicable) to 1400 innings… roughly a 155 game season.

This was done because the players each appeared in different periods thanks to various injuries and such, so scaling them up helps to better compare apples with apples.

That said… Arenado has clearly been the most durable/sustainable player as of late.

The defensive metrics cited here are these:

  • The traditional:  Errors, Putouts, Assists.
    • These have the shortcoming of being at least partly related to the tendency of a pitching staff to induce plays in the direction of third base.
  • Double-plays Started (DPS).  Same issue here.
  • Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  A counting stat of plays that resulted in a saved run (or more).  You could rightly think of this as a fielder’s “Clutch” ability… though it can vary wildly from year to year.
  • Balls in ‘Zone’ and Plays (BIZ).  BIZ isn’t about a player quality, but Plays can be.  It merely identifies how busy a fielder is… and thus whether his fielding prowess matters more.
  • Revised Zone Rating (RZR) – defined as “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out”
  • Out Of Zone (OOZ) Plays Made.  essentially a measure of a player’s range – and success when venturing away from ‘home’.
  • Ultimate Zone Rating – scaled to 150 games (UZR/150 ) – “UZR tells you how many runs better or worse that player has been relative to the average player at his position. A +5 UZR at third means the player is five runs better than the average third baseman.”

There are other metrics – yes – but this many is both a good cross-section and a reasonable limit in terms of what we can describe in this forum.

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