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Atlanta Braves’ Fangraphs projections for 2020: the good and the bad

By Seth Carter

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13, Ozzie Albies #1 and Ender Inciarte #11 of the Atlanta Braves in the dugout during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-0. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13, Ozzie Albies #1 and Ender Inciarte #11 of the Atlanta Braves in the dugout during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-0. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Reviewing Fangraphs projections of the Atlanta Braves compared to the rest of the league. What did they get right and what did they get wrong?

The Atlanta Braves are looking for a third consecutive National League East title in 2020. They added a veteran arm in Cole Hamels and replaced Josh Donaldson‘s power bat with Marcell Ozuna‘s as they arm themselves for their title defense.

Fangraphs has pre-season projections for each team’s combined WAR at each position. Today we will review how they have projected the Atlanta Braves in 2020 and what they got right and wrong.

Total Fangraphs WAR

First of all, they have the Braves ranked ninth in total WAR. It’s not bad but it’s certainly no World Series favorite either. The most disturbing part of this ranking is that the Braves are projected to finish with less total WAR than both the Mets and Nationals, in that order.

It’s a tight race in the NL East.

  1. New York Mets: 44.6
  2. Washington Nationals: 44.5
  3. Atlanta Braves: 43.3
  4. Philadelphia Phillies: 38.0
  5. Miami Marlins: 23.7

I’d like to see the Braves atop that list, but it’s a tight race and that reflects the difficulty of playing in the NL East right now. The Phillies are no slouch and the Marlins appear to finally be on the right track.

I think this list is too close to be complaining about. However, when we dig into the details a little, I see a glaring deficiency in the projections that would likely propel the Braves into the number one spot.

Before we do that, here’s a couple of projections they definitely got right.

Freddie Freeman:  First Base

Not only are the Braves projected to finish first in the NL East in WAR in 2020, but they took the number one spot in the entire league at one position. Freddie Freeman is one of the most complete players in the major leagues.

Whether you are talking about his defense, his power, his ability to tame a wild hedgehog with a soothing hug, his ability to consistently be among the league leaders in line-drive rates, or his ability to hit against the shift.

Freeman is one of the rocks of the league. The rest of the division is filled with some question marks at first base. Even Pete Alonso comes with a high strikeout rate and questions about regression. What is he worth if he hits 30 homers and bats .220? How far out of the realm of possibility is that?

So, yes easy call here. Fangraphs got this one RIGHT!

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