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Atlanta Braves’ Fangraphs projections for 2020: the good and the bad

By Seth Carter

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13, Ozzie Albies #1 and Ender Inciarte #11 of the Atlanta Braves in the dugout during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-0. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13, Ozzie Albies #1 and Ender Inciarte #11 of the Atlanta Braves in the dugout during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-0. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves starter Mike Soroka (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Atlanta Braves starter Mike Soroka (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

Braves Starting Pitching

This is where Fangraphs and I really disagree. The big issue holding the Braves back in the projections is starting pitching. The Braves are projected to finish 15th in total WAR from starting pitchers.

I vehemently disagree with this projection. Why?

I believe in Mike Soroka. Mikey finished last season with a 2.68 ERA and a 4.0 fWAR in just 174.2 innings pitched. We all expect Soroka to take that next step this year and threaten that 200 inning threshold (based on a full season). 

Fangraphs is only projecting him to pitch 182 innings* and earn 0.5 WAR less than last season. They are giving him a 3.74 ERA on the season. It’s not bad, but they don’t believe he’s an ace because he only strikes out 7.32 batters per nine. Essentially, if he could just strike out 1.68 hitters more per nine innings, or .19 batters per inning more, then he’d be a really good pitcher. I don’t buy that. WRONG! 

* – all of this was obviously based on the assumption of a full 162-game season.  Oh well.

Related Story. Soroka Will Progress not Regress in 2020. light

Max Fried has the stuff, he has the K-rate, he has an elite-groundball rate. I fully expect Fried and Soroka to form a 1-2 punch of aces at the top of this rotation by season’s end. Fangraphs believes Fried will finish with a 3.4 WAR, which is .4 higher than last season.

They don’t see much improvement over what the lefty gave us last year. So far they are telling me that Soroka isn’t a true ace…but he’s the best you got. WRONG!

The projections for Mike Foltynewicz have him finishing tied for our third-best starting pitcher with Cole Hamels at a 2.0 WAR but with a 4.52 ERA. This is in total disregard of the fact that 1.5 out of the past 2.0 seasons, Foltynewicz has been one of the game’s best pitchers.

He began last season dealing with injuries that dragged on into the season. It appeared he may have rushed his return. Once he got healthy he returned to form as the 2018 Cy Young candidate. Foltynewicz rebounded from his abysmal first half to go 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA in the second half. Fangraphs is WRONG!  

In conclusion, the one thing we all agree on is the fact that the Braves have the offensive firepower. Their season will hinge upon the success of the starting rotation. All of the other pieces are in place. Will Soroka claim his spot as the new ace of the Braves? Will Fried live up to the hype and build upon what he did last year?

Next. .400 AVG More Likely in 2020. dark

I love the Atlanta Braves starting pitching prospects this season because I believe in the top three. Hamels is a great veteran addition and there’s a lot of talented arms vying for that last spot.

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