Atlanta Braves draft: Successes after round five are few and far between

Atlanta Braves fans take heart: history suggests we miss little after round 5.

Weary of waiting for the season to start, Atlanta Braves fans turn their attention to MLB’s annual June extravaganza, the Rule 4 amateur draft. I say “extravaganza” with tongue-in-cheek, since the MLB draft isn’t much of a spectacle, and usually becomes a roll call of “who??” on day two.

Former Commissioner and Gollum stunt-double Bud Selig wanted to turn the MLB Draft into a big TV extravaganza, similar to the NFL draft. He managed to get it on TV, and after some initial stumbles, it became an annual event; and one that lasted at least two-hours too long,

As someone who watched every minute of it on TV and the web since it became a televised event (no, I don’t have a life), I know there it has a lot of faults. The most egregious of these is length; it’s too danged long.

Thankfully, the 2020 draft won’t last as long, and could easily be over in a day – it won’t be, but it could. Based on past performance from players selected after round-five, perhaps the draft should end there every year.

Jake told you about the Atlanta Braves’ biggest first-round busts and earlier about our successes in the early rounds, but what about the late rounds?

Atlanta Braves results beyond round five

In the ten amateur drafts from 2008 through 2017, the Atlanta Braves selected a total of 447 players.

156 didn’t sign
- one DNS in rounds one – five
Of 390 players selected after round five
- 155 DNS
- 14 reached the majors for at least one game to date

Ten players selected after round-five reached the majors with the Braves and together produced 13.5 rWAR

- Seven pitchers
- One second baseman
- One third baseman
- One catcher

Of the nine players who started with the Atlanta Braves, three have a positive career rWAR of 2.0 or higher.

Evan Gattis: 8.5 (mostly with Houston and now out of baseball)
Tommy La Stella 3.6 (476 games, 2.0 rWAR with the Angels in 80, 2019-appearances)
Chasen Shreve 2.2 (rWAR in 218 games, mostly as a Yankee)
Jacob Webb has a 0.8 rWAR and Shae Simmons 0.4
John Cornely — his only Major League appearance lasted pitched one inning for Atlanta in 2015. That earned him .06 rWAR

Four players selected after round five reached the Major Leagues after being traded elsewhere by the Atlanta Braves producing a total of –0.7 rWAR

Three pitchers
One SS

Only Ryne Harper with 0.6 rWAR has a positive rWAR. The Braves drafted Harper in 2011, and he made his debut as the majors with the Twins in 2019 at 30 years old.

Conclusions

While the numbers tell us that 5.9 percent of players selected after round-five reached the majors, only three, Gattis, La Stella, and Shreve, produced above replacement level. The results aren’t an anomaly.

More from Tomahawk Take

I’m not suggesting that the draft be forever limited to five rounds, but statistics show us that the farther you get away from round-one, the lower your chances are of finding a significant piece. Everything points to ten rounds being more than enough to harvest the cream of the crop.

I looked at Atlanta Braves drafts going back to 1965 and found a dozen players taken after round ten that had significant careers.

It makes sense to limit the draft to ten rounds with higher slot values, and limit signing bonuses for amateur players signed outside of the draft as they’ve done this year.

MLB wanted to shrink and reorganize the minors before the pandemic put many minor league franchises on life support. Many potential prospects won’t have a place to go after the likely downsizing take place.

A smaller, more talented minor league system would allow teams to increase pay to a living wage, and probably produce better players.

That’s a wrap

I’ve seen Atlanta Braves fans bemoaning the short draft. To those folks, I’d say, relax. The five-round draft won’t hurt the future of the Atlanta Braves system now or in the future.

What the short draft will do, is force teams to be more selective in making their choices and less stingy when it comes to paying for it.

Next. busted. dark

Have fun, and enjoy the draft.

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