Atlanta Braves Trade Candidates: Matthew Boyd

Matthew Boyd has been in trade discussions for the last year. Would it make sense for the Atlanta Braves to pursue to lefty?

Often connected to the Atlanta Braves, Matthew Boyd is off to an ugly start in 2020. In 6 starts he has a 8.48 ERA and has tanked a lot of the trade value he had at last year’s deadline and during this off-season.

Despite the ugly start, Boyd still remains in trade discussions because of two reasons. The Tigers (13-16) aren’t very good and many teams are looking for starting pitching.

Enter the Atlanta Braves. Outside of Max Fried, they have struggled to find any consistency in their rotation. Before Ian Anderson’s stellar debut against the Yankees, Max Fried was the only Braves starter to earn a win in 2020.

Could Boyd fill one of the holes left by Soroka, Hamels, Folty, Newcomb, and Felix? Let’s take a deeper look at this possibility.

The Boyd Identity

As mentioned earlier, Boyd is not off to a great start with an 8.48 ERA. His K/9, while solid, is down (10.36) and his BB/9 (3.45) and HR/9 (2.51) have gone up from last season. It’s not a pretty situation for Boyd.

His peripherals, while not pretty, do suggest that he may be suffering from some bad luck. His FIP is 5.84 and his xFIP is 4.60, which suggests that his ERA should come down, although that should not be too hard given that it’s currently north of 8.

Looking at the 2020 numbers, it does not look like Boyd has much to offer a team this year. Yet, this is a guy that was in a lot of trade rumors over the last calendar year.

Looking at his 2018 & 2019 numbers it’s easy to see why:  2018 Boyd had a 4.39 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and a 4.72 xFIP.

In 2019, Boyd took a step forward with a 4.56 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and a 3.88 xFIP. However, it was an increase in K/9 to 11.56, a decrease in BB/9 to 2.43, and his ground ball percentage rose to 35.6%.

These are not Ace-level numbers by any means, but they were enough to achieve a 3.3 WAR in 2019. In other words, he would have been a really solid 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation for any team in contention.

Put him in front of a team that’s great defensively, and he may improve those numbers. Then consider that he’s controllable throughout the 2022 season and he becomes a little appealing as a cheaper option at the deadline.

Will the Braves make a move for Boyd? I don’t think he would be their top candidate, but I would not be shocked to hear that they have inquired on Boyd — especially if his value has dropped to where the Braves would not have to give up much to acquire him.

Put him in front of the Braves defense, which is usually really solid, and maybe he turns into a reliable middle of the rotation starter.

Would the Braves make this move though?

Potential trade package

• Braves trade: Bryse Wilson (5th ranked prospect) & Greyson Jenista (22nd ranked prospect)
• Tigers trade: Matthew Boyd

I’m not sure if the Braves would make this deal, but this would probably make sense for the Tigers, who are still a few years from competing. They give up Boyd who has two years of control, they get a young pitcher who is essentially major league ready, and running out of room in Atlanta, and a top 25 prospect in Jenista.

I think this is what the Tigers would look for in return, or at least something close to this. I’m not sure if the Braves would make this deal with Boyd’s struggles, and I doubt the Braves would want to give up more than that if they were interested in Boyd.

Boyd could be on the move this deadline, but I’m not sure he ends up in Atlanta.