Atlanta Braves Trade Candidates: Trevor Williams

The Pittsburgh Pirates have fallen on hard times in 2020 and it doesn’t appear like it will get any easier anytime soon. With the Pirates rebuilding, should the Atlanta Braves look to acquire Trevor Williams?

At the time of writing, the Pittsburgh Pirates currently sit at 9-21 (the only team without double digit wins). With the 15th ranked farm system in the majors, it makes sense for the Pirates to consider selling some assets to build for the long term.

The Atlanta Braves are currently 18-14 and in first in the NL East. However, outside of Max Fried, the Braves are trusting rookie Ian Anderson, and then several question marks in their rotation (Hello Robbie Erlin). The Atlanta Braves may only be one or two starting pitchers away from a deep run this October.

Would acquiring Trevor Williams be the move that helps the Braves make that run? Well, let’s take a look at Trevor Williams and what would a potential move look like?

Who is Trevor Williams?

Trevor Williams had a breakout season in 2018 with a 3.11 ERA and a 2.7 fWAR. He looked like he had turned into a solid 3rd starter or even a low end number 2.

However, his peripherals suggested that his 2018 season was a mirage. He had a 3.86 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP meaning he was getting some luck in his starts. While these weren’t terrible by any means, it did show he was due for some regression.

That regression showed up in 2019 as Williams struggled badly to get anything going. In 2019, he pitched to a 5.38 ERA, 5.12 FIP, & 5.25 xFIP. The regression had hit and it hit hard.

Those hoping for a bounce back in 2020 have been disappointed as Williams currently has a 5.34 ERA, 5.30 FIP, & 4.85 xFIP. Now Williams has only pitched 30.1 innings this season, so it could be just a small sample size that we’re looking at, but it’s not promising when you consider his 2019 was just as bad.

What went wrong with Williams from 2018 to now? Well, he’s never been a big strikeout guy as he averages around 7 strikeouts per 9 innings and he’s consistently been around 3 walks per nine throughout his career.

A glaring issue has been the home run ball. In 2018 Williams gave up 0.79 HR/9, in 2019 that number rose to 1.67 HR/9, and is currently at 1.78 HR/9 in 2020.

Now look at his batting average against and his WHIP totals. In 2018, .227 average against and a 1.18 WHIP. In 2020 it’s currently a .281 average against and a 1.45 WHIP. So more guys are getting on base against Williams and he’s giving up more dingers, that’s not a great combination.

Williams is only 28 years old and has two years left of control, so the hope is he could still become a solid 4th or 5th starter. He’s a pitch to contact type of pitcher, so maybe putting him in front of a solid defense (and a change in scenery in general) could help him become that reliable backend starter.

What would it cost for Atlanta?

As most people know, the Braves need starting pitching. They don’t necessarily need a top of the rotation arm as Max Fried is currently pitching like a Cy Young candidate, they just need someone that can go 5-6 innings, and keep them in the game.

With Atlanta’s great defense, maybe Trevor Williams could be that pitcher. The Braves have a solid farm system, but what would it cost to acquire Williams?

Pittsburgh could really use some catching prospects. Atlanta happens to have Shea Langeliers, Wiliam Contreras, and Alex Jackson.

Langeliers or Contreras may be enough to acquire Trevor Williams on their own. However, if Atlanta doesn’t want to give up their top two catching prospects, what does a package with Alex Jackson look like?

Potential Trade:

• Atlanta trades: Alex Jackson, & Jasseel De La Cruz (12th ranked prospect)
• Pittsburgh trades: Trevor Williams

The Braves could potentially look to add a 3rd piece, maybe Greyson Jenista (22nd ranked prospect), but they’d probably want to get a 2nd piece in return from the Pirates as well since Williams isn’t pitching all that great.

If Gregory Polanco or Adam Frazier was playing better, they could be fun additions to the trade, but they’re having bad years at the plate and Atlanta wouldn’t want to take on any extra money with not much return value.

Personally, I’m not a big fan of Trevor Williams and think the Braves could find a better back-end starter elsewhere that would probably be cheaper. If the price comes down on Williams, then maybe Anthopolous makes a cheap deadline acquisition, but I would think the Braves look elsewhere first.