The Atlanta Braves and possible contract extensions
It’s a conversation that needs to happen with multiple Atlanta Braves players — soon.
How do you put a price on a breakout season in the midst of a pandemic? That is the question that players, agents, and front offices will have to figure out an answer for… and the Atlanta Braves have multiple players for which that conversation is relevant.
How good are we talking about here? That depends a bit on your point of view, but this is mostly about those who have been driving this Braves offense thus far this season.
That phrase “thus far” is also relevant since we’re only talking about 40 games of a 60-game season… so how does one measure whether these numbers are fully sustainable for a normal regular season (and 2021 is still a bit far off to contemplate whether ‘normal’ can happen even then).
Like it or not, this is the hand that the Braves have been dealt — and it’s at least a nice situation to be in: contemplating whether certain excellent members of their roster are worthy of extended deals.
Here are the players we’re talking about:
MARCELL OZUNA
- Turns 30 years old in November
- Current contract: $18 million (pro-rated)
- Free agent at year’s end
- Not eligible for a qualifying offer contract, so Atlanta gets no compensation if he walks away
- Currently tied for 8th in NL in fWAR (1.6) despite worst defensive component of all players in at least the Top 50.
- 11th among NL position players in bWAR (1.5).
Ozuna had been suffering from a nagging shoulder injury over the past couple of seasons, which clearly affected him on both offense and defense.
Now fully healthy, his OPS has soared to a career-best 1.062 as of Sunday (previous best: .924 in 2017 as a Marlin), which is 260-300 points higher than in 2018-19 as a Cardinal. Likewise, his batting average is also way up (from .241 to .320 since 2019).
Were this a 162-game season, Ozuna is on pace for roughly 53 homers (prior high was 37 in 2017). He could still extend his personal streak of 4 seasons with 20+ homers. Also, Freddie Freeman thinks he’s getting better pitches to hit with Ozuna behind him.
Due to his defensive issues, Ozuna has been “hidden” in left field by his NL teams, though he is almost certainly destined for a DH role with his next contract… whether that transition is delayed by a year or not.
Who is the real Ozuna, then? That’s the $64 million question.
COMPETITION: other 2020 off-season outfielder free agents of interest include (2021 playing age included)…
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (31)
- Michael Brantley (34)
- Ryan Braun (36) [option certain to be declined]
- Nick Castellanos (29 – if he exercises his opt-out clause)
- Yoenis Cespedes (35)
- Marwin Gonzalez (32)
- Enrique Hernandez (29)
- Joc Pederson (29)
- George Springer (31)
- Michael Taylor (30)
Additionally, Nick Markakis and Giancarlo Stanton are on the list. Stanton almost certainly will not opt-out, thus staying with the Yankees. Markakis… represents a different kind of quandary for the Braves that we’ll set aside for now.
Ozuna will almost certainly want a deal in the 4+ year range and it might take a 5th year to land him.
The current company he’s keeping with on the batting leader boards is impressive: Fernando Tatis Jr. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager among them. He’s ahead of Freddie Freeman, too (14th).
Still, he’s really a one-dimensional player and that’s going to matter, but a raise above this year’s $18 million is also inevitable.
Figure on a range between 4 years at $20 million ($80m) and 5 years/$24m($120m). The first team to go to a 5th year might land him.
That might rule out the Braves, but if they were to offer him 4×22 right now… well, he’s “so close” to free agency and having a banner year: that’s going to be a tough sell.