Braves Analytics: Max Fried Continues to Raise his Ceiling

Max Fried continues to improve and has been dominant thus far in 2020 for Atlanta Braves. Which raises the question, exactly how high is Max Fried’s ceiling?

The great Macho Man Randy Savage once said, “But the cream will rise to the top, ooh yeah. you know that I’m the cream of the crop!” Max Fried has proven with his performance in 2020 for the Atlanta Braves that he’s in the cream of the crop among starting pitchers in all of major league baseball.

If the season were to end today, Max Fried would have to be considered as one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award. The main roadblock to Max Fried being the clear favorite for the award is Yu Darvish who continues to pitch well and the Chicago Cubs are in 1st place in the NL Central.

However, maybe Fried’s biggest accomplishment so far in 2020 is stabilizing the Atlanta Braves starting pitching situation. Outside of two starts from Ian Anderson, Max Fried has been the only consistent pitcher in the Braves rotation.

Other than Fried, it’s been a revolving door of starting pitchers with guys like Robbie Erlin, Josh Tomlin, Tommy Milone, and whichever young pitcher got the express from the alternate site that week. Thankfully, every five days Max Fried has looked like a legitimate ace that, even on days where he doesn’t have his best stuff, can shut opposing lineups down.

Proving His Worth

So far, Max Fried has a 1.98 ERA and a 2.47 FIP. That’s top of the rotation material.

If that’s not impressive enough, how about the fact that he still hasn’t allowed a home run in 2020? How about the fact that the Braves are 8-1 when Max Fried starts so far in 2020?

What about his WAR? Max Fried is currently 3rd in fWAR (1.8 fWAR) for all pitchers and 11th out of all players. If one goes to baseball reference’s WAR leaderboard, Max Fried is currently fourth with a 2.7 WAR.

What’s been the biggest difference so far for Fried in 2020? He’s limiting hard hits against him. In 2019, the average exit velocity against Fried was 89.1, which was really good. In 2020, the average exit velocity against Fried has fallen to 83.4.

In short, Max Fried has been nothing short of elite in 2020.

How high can Fried fly?

When Max Fried debuted in 2017, most knew he had the potential to become a top of the rotation arm. However, I think most figured he would slot in as a high-end number two with another young prospect by the name of Mike Soroka projected to become the future ace.

Now, Mike Soroka has been everything Braves fans could want and more, but Max Fried has surpassed expectations and has proven he can be the ace of a staff. In Fried’s fourth major league season, he has shown that he has the potential to become one of the best starters in the entire league.

I think most would have been thrilled if Max Fried had become a solid 2nd starter. However, Fried decided that being a “2” wasn’t good enough for him, and kept working to become an even better pitcher.

It’s important to recognize that Max spent most of his first two seasons working primarily out of the bullpen, so maybe he just needed the opportunity to prove who he really is. He wasn’t rushed into the starting rotation, rather he was brought in out of the pen, sometimes in big situations, and learned how to pitch at the major league level that way.

That experience seemingly has paid off for the young pitcher, because its rare to see Fried look like the moment is too big for him. There are times he gets into minor trouble, and Brian Snitker doesn’t have to worry about bringing in an arm out of the bullpen because Max has figured out how to pitch out of tight situations.

Amazingly, Max Fried is doing all of this at the age of 26 and is still improving. Fried may not even be in his prime yet, because some pitchers take a few years before they truly figure it out and become legitimate studs.

Remember a guy named Cliff Lee? In 2006, Lee had a 4.40 ERA and in 2007 he had a 6.29 ERA. It wasn’t until 2008 when he was 29 years old that he figured it out and pitched to a 2.54 ERA with a 6.8 fWAR and happened to win a CY Young award.

It took Lee 7 seasons to figure out how to become a stud. Including the Cy Young year in 2008, Lee racked up a total 40.2 fWAR until he finished his career in 2014.

Another pitcher that we all know, Jacob deGrom, truly broke out when he was 29 before winning his first Cy Young at age 30.

Now, I’m not saying Max Fried will become Cliff Lee, Jacob deGrom, or another Cy Young level pitcher. I’m only stating that the best may be yet to come from young Max Fried.

It’s fun to think about what Fried is doing right now, but imagine if he takes another step forward and takes more strides towards superstardom. He has the stuff, makeup, and maybe most importantly, he has that it factor that stars possess that can’t be taught.

The Atlanta Braves are fortunate to have Max Fried, along with Mike Soroka, for the next several years. If these guys continue to grow (and potentially push each other), the Braves will have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Not only will they have that solid top of the rotation, but they could potentially have one of the best pitchers in baseball if Max Fried continues to pitch the way he has in 2020.