Figuring the Atlanta Braves’ magic numbers

Like everything else this year, the Atlanta Braves may as well just keep winning to make sure.

The lack of head-to-head games against non-division teams is messing up things a bit as we approach the playoffs.  So too, are the schedules, and thus the Atlanta Braves are having to guess a bit with the rest of us.

There are two magic numbers of interest here:  the division clincher and the playoff-entry clincher.  Let’s start with the latter.

Entering play on Saturday, here’s the situation:

• BRAVES, 30-21
  • CARDINALS, 24-24 (10 games left)
  • REDS, 26-26 (8 games left)
  • GIANTS, 25-25 (10 games left)

These are the 3 teams fighting for the last playoff spot.  Currently, they are some combination of the 7th seed, 8th seed, and making-off-season-plans.

For the record, Milwaukee is the only other club now reasonably still in the mix, at 24-26… and that’s still relevant since they have 2 more games to play (10) than Cincy.

The BEST each team can do is the following:

• CARDS:  34-24, .586 (2 of their 60 games have been canceled)
• REDS:  34-26, .567
• GIANTS:  35-25, .583
• BREWERS:  34-26, .567

For the Atlanta Braves to clinch a playoff spot, they have to be able to guarantee their record to be better than two of these four clubs.

That means 35 wins… a .583 winning percentage: better than the Reds or Brewers can possibly muster.  So that would indicate a magic number of five to clinch in the worst-case scenario.

Seeing this number reduced over time will be more complicated since there are 4 teams that are in play, but let’s just say that this isn’t likely to be a big deal for the Braves — expect it to be settled by the middle of next week at the latest.

Milwaukee will have the biggest voice in these proceedings, as they play both Cincinnati and St. Louis next week, and those wins/losses will impact the Braves’ chances.  It does not, however, change the magic number.

As this is being written, the Giants are about to lose to Oakland, so their best-possible record will slip to 34-26… but that doesn’t change Atlanta’s need to get to 35 wins, either, since a 34-win season would throw things into a possible chaotic tie-breaker scenario.

Division Numbers

Let’s move to the NL East:

• ATLANTA:  30-21 (9 games remaining)
  • MIAMI:  26-24 (10 games remaining)
  • PHILADELPHIA: 26-25 (9 games to go)

Same method here:  the best records that these clubs can achieve are…

• MIAMI:  36-24
• PHILLY:  35-25

The Braves have to eclipse that best possible record for the Marlins, which means getting to 37 wins, so their divisional magic number is 7.

Every future win by Atlanta lowers that number; every future loss by Miami lowers it, too.  If Philly passes Miami in the process, then it’s their best-possible-record that Atlanta will then have to beat and the magic number will depend on their progress next week.

The way this Braves team is hitting… that number should hit zero early next week — hopefully in the midst of the Marlins’ series.