The stats that carry the Atlanta Braves in 2020

We know the Atlanta Braves are an offensive force, but the details are close to amazing.

We know how the Atlanta Braves‘ pitching has been going this year, but the offense their lineup has been generating has clearly been carrying the team.

There’s some Statcast numbers that really back that up.

MLB’s Mike Petriello has put together charts of all 30 MLB clubs in an effort to determine which of a basket of Statcast numbers make more of a difference — at least here in 2020.

Let’s just say right up front that the Atlanta Braves are doing pretty well.

The Braves and the Barrels

“Barrel Rate” is the Statcast measurement of both exit velocity and launch angle that tries to indicate just how solidly a batter hits the ball.

Oddly enough, it’s a stat that represents the best single indicator of which teams will make the playoffs in 2020.

Of the 30 MLB clubs, the best 13 in barrel rate look likely to make the playoffs.  Oddly enough, playoff hopefuls Houston and Cleveland are ranking 27th and 28th, but they are the clear outliers.

The Atlanta Braves?  Third in the majors behind the Dodgers and the Padres.  Immediately behind them are the White Sox.  Then there’s a significant dropoff before we get to the 5th place Phillies.

This represents not only the mammoth homers that have been hit by the Braves lineup, but also the line drives — which are coming up and down this batting order.  Clearly, that’s the bread-and-butter driving this offense.

What Doesn’t Matter?

Believe it or not… it’s the strikeouts.

Early on this season, we were all getting alarmed at the number of times Braves batters were getting to the plate only to take a U-turn for the dugout while still carrying their bat.

That has gotten better in recent weeks — the team ranked 10th on Petriello’s chart in strikeout rate — but it’s the whole chart that’s more interesting.

The worst team for striking out is Detroit… not a big surprise:  they are now the 4th worst AL team.  What’s almost shocking, though, is that the Tampa Bay Rays are second on the K-rate chart.

As we progress through the list, though, playoff-bound teams are sprinkled all through the roster of 30 clubs, with no clear pattern.

• Of the 15 worst:  7 are possible playoff clubs.
• Of the best 15:  9 teams are looking to play in October.

Maybe a different grouping?

• 4 playoff hopefuls are congregated among the middle 10
• 6 are among the worst 10.
• 6 are among the best 10.

I don’t know if that’s a comforting stat… personally, I’d like to see the ball put into play more often, but it does suggest that the strikeout isn’t a stat that completely kills off an offense’s power (Saturday night’s game notwithstanding).

Some other of his stats have the Braves offense ranked very well:  3rd overall in both team batting average (over .260) and Expected/Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA if you’re into that).

Oddly, the Mets are the MLB leaders in the team batting average category right now with the White Sox next.

San Diego and LA lead the way on the latter xwOBA chart.  The Braves are the only team ranked so highly on both of these charts.

Stats are fun, but meaningful stats are more fun.  It’s often hard to discern which ones are harbingers of good fortune and sometimes it takes multiple ones together to explain why a club is doing well.  Petriello’s work is a decent start in the right direction.