The Atlanta Braves and the arbitration off-season

How will the Atlanta Braves handle the coming off-season financially?  Lots of big questions loom.

Over the past several years, every Atlanta Braves General Manager has maintained that their hands have not been restrained in terms of making the financial outlay for players that make sense for the team.

That mantra might be tested this off-season after a low-revenue season.  It’s also going to make for several issues that will be front-and-center in a year that already saw a great deal of labor-vs-management strife in the months leading up to this abbreviated season we’ve all just experienced.

Witness this as Exhibit A:  the arbitration figures postulated by the MLB Trade Rumors site.

Ordinarily, these are so good that even multiple teams have been said to use them as reference points for their work in the arbitration process.  But this time around, the MLBTR staff is… let’s say “hedging”.

This year, MLBTR is providing model results in three forms:

• #1: a low figure based on the actual 2020 results of players
• #2: an ‘extrapolated’ value based on a pro-rated 162-game season.
• #3 — for all except the 1st-time arbitration-eligible players — the arbitration raise that normally would have been expected… but scaled back to match 2020’s “37% season”.

Accordingly, the largest estimate is from #2.  You can bet that the players and their representation (agents) will be looking toward number like these.  The teams?  Probably a lot less.

Braves Arbitration Cases

So with that introduction, here’s what the Atlanta Braves are looking at this Winter (with this data lifted directly from our friends at MLBTradeRumors.com):

• Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
• Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
• Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
• Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM  ???
  
• Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
• A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
• Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM  ???
• Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

CORRECTIONS (h/t Fred Owens):  I have been reminded that Mike Soroka and Max Fried may or may not be arb-eligible yet.  Super-2 status is yet to be finalized and will be a factor.

Let’s look at some of these…

Right away, you’d have to wonder if Johan Camargo might have played himself into a non-tender position.  The numbers cited above, however, are not that significant as to pose a real threat to the Braves’ budget, so it’s possible that he could still be back.

Still, don’t be surprised if he’s non-tendered:  Camargo has had his Jekyll/Hyde moments and the late demotion from the major league roster spoke volumes.  He might get a minor-league contract offer from Atlanta with a $1.5 million major league rider… if he can work his way back to Atlanta.

Grant Dayton had a good year — much better than we had anticipated here, in fact.  For his 33-year-old season, though, he won’t have too many options, but I expect the Braves try to bring him back… and something in the 800K-to-$1 million range sounds right.

Adam Duvall likely won’t be offered that $7.1 million figure, but something around $5.0 to $5.5 million might be about right.  He emerged as a near-everyday player, though a .237 batting average mitigates the 16 home run outburst he produced this year.

Were he more consistent at the plate, the Braves might really have something.  That said, he’s got 2 more seasons of team control, so maybe there’s still room for growth here?

Luke Jackson became a “forgotten man” in the bullpen after a while — and this arbitration suggestion of $1 million reflects that.

The rest of the list — Fried and Soroka (maybe), Minter, and Swanson — is a roll-call of players who excelled in 2020.

All of these players should be rewarded for their efforts, and the Braves should offer them raises (if not outright extensions where appropriate) that lean about halfway between the latter pair of arbitration estimates from MLBTR.

Of course, all of this is speculation, as it’s hard to estimate how a continued and protracted bout with COVID-19 is going to impact the 2021 season.  Anyone expecting full stadiums right away next April?  Yeah — there’s the rub.

So while this subject involves arbitration cases and how teams will spend their revenues, there will be a much bigger picture involving free agency.

There are teams with huge revenue streams that will be able to through caution to the wind and continue to bid on free agents normally (though they may still ratchest things back a bit).

There is at least one team — the Mets — with a new owner who has stated that he’d be okay with losing money for a while… because he wants to win.  That may cause problems for team like the Braves.

In any case, we’re still way early in the process, but believe this:  money issues will dominate discussions this Winter… and next.  So buckle up for a rocky ride.