Expect the Atlanta Braves and everyone else to be frugal this off-season

The handwriting is already on the wall:  the Atlanta Braves and MLB can’t be big spenders in 2021.

The signs are out there:  team options are being declined at a rapid rate this week, and the Atlanta Braves are not immune to the trend.

When we get this week’s podcast up, you’ll be able to hear some of the reasoning in more detail, but this will be an introduction of sorts to the kinds of things we should expect to see coming this Winter from most of the MLB teams.

We’ve already heard about major payroll cuts for baseball operations personnel:  that’s “meat” being cut… not just the fat.

There’s been no signs thus far where teams are expecting to be able to bring fans back in the seats at any capacity higher than 25% to start with… and it is very likely that many stadiums will still be empty next April.

Thus the revenue streams for all will still be curtailed in a major way, and that will impact how the business of team-building will happen this Winter.

Therefore, here’s what we can expect:

• The better free agents will get paid.
  • To be sure, there aren’t that many of them.  Names like Ozuna, Springer, Bauer, Realmuto, maybe LeMahieu… and then there’s a sizable gap.
  • The real gotcha is this, though:  there are precious few clubs with the resources to pay them, so while they will get good contracts, you might see a lot of creativity involved.
  • What creativity?  Things like severely backloaded deals or lots of deferred monies.  Anything to allow teams to ration funds over the short term until (hopefully) they can recover from 2020 and 2021.
• The early birds may get the worms.
  • This was a Fred Owens point on the podcast:  players (and their agents) who are reading the tea leaves properly are going to realize that holding out for a better deal is going to be a bad plan: the best deal they get might be the first one they are offered.
  • Teams are going to be low-balling players a lot, though there will be several mid-tier free agents worth having.  Teams getting them early on will give them the jump on others… if they are willing to risk a few more dollars.
• After an initial flurry of activity, the Winter will likely grow glacially cold.
  • Big Winter meeting signings?  Maybe not.
  • Teams looking to bargain-shop will be holding out for a long time… into early February if necessary… to keep their payrolls down.
• Do not expect the Atlanta Braves to be going after any of those high-dollar players.
  • Last season was the “go for it” time for Atlanta… with their highest payroll rate ever.
  • Fortunately for them, they ended up with a pair of high-dollar 1-year deals (Ozuna, Hamels) and a big expiring contract (Melancon).  Just think where they’d be if they now had Donaldson’s deal.
  • Committed monies for Atlanta (guessing arbitration numbers) will be around $110 million.  Anything else that rises above $130 million in this economic climate would be a big surprise.
  • Thus… maybe they have $20 million to spend?  That’s a guess, of course, but given what we’re already seeing, cost-cutting is happening virtually everywhere right now.

The good news for the Braves is that they do have multiple team-friendly deals on the books — notably those of Acuna and Albies.  Also, their pitching staff (such as it is) consists entire of pre-arb and barely-arbitration-eligible players.  So there is some cost-containment going on.

We’ll continue to profile possible free agent targets as the off-season progresses, but most of this constitutes ‘due diligence’ on our part; for if there’s money of any significance needed to land these players in Atlanta, then it’s going to be a difficult sell — unless such a free agent simply wants to be a part of what’s going on here.

Sorry to be the bearer of news like that, but it’s simply the way things are lining up for the entire industry right now… and the Atlanta Braves will have to grind it out just like the rest.

Look for further explanations on our next podcast.