Atlanta Braves offseason review – Roster moves and needs
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves gave the Dodgers all they could handle in the NLCS, clearing major hurdles along the way. Now seems a good time to look at what we know about the 2021 roster.
Leaving the Atlanta Braves or already gone to free agency are Cole Hamels, Marcell Ozuna, Mark Melancon, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, Adeiny Hechavarria, Tommy Milone, Josh Tomlin, Shane Green, Pablo Sandoval, Darren O’Day (option declined), and Charlie Culberson.
The club has an estimated $92.9M ($87.7 if, as I expect, Jackson is non-tendered again) in contracted payroll plus another $6.9M in payroll for 12 minimum-salary players if nothing changes… but changes will happen.
The club has nine arbitration-eligible players, eight of them on the 40-man roster (Folty is the other). Martin is technically an Arb 3 player but is playing under a contract that removes him from arbitration.
I calculated that three other players — Newcomb with two years 153 days, Fried with two years 148 days, and Soroka with two years 146 days –- will reach Super-Two status, as the cutoff is usually about two years, 130 days. No estimate was available for Newcomb, so I gave him the same amount estimated for Jackson.
The chart below contains two projected payrolls for 17 players, add $6.5M to each total to estimate filling the roster with minimum salary players Arb estimates from Spotrac and MLBTR.
| Committed |
| Arb Estimate |
| Projected Super 2 |
| Nontender candidate |
| Nonguaranteed contract |
| Player | Status | Spotrac Payroll | MLBTR Payroll |
| Freddie Freeman | contracted | $22,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| Will Smith | contracted | $13,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Ender Inciarte | contracted | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | contracted | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Chris Martin | contracted | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Ronald Acuna | contracted | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Ozzie Albies | contracted | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Dansby Swanson | Arb 2 | $6,300,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Adam Duvall | Arb 3 | $5,750,000 | $4,700,000 |
| A.J. Minter | Arb 1 | $1,300,000 | $1,100,000 |
| Grant Dayton | Arb 2 | $900,000 | $800,000 |
| Johan Camargo | Arb 1 | $2,100,000 | $1,900,000 |
| Sean Newcomb | ?? | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Max Fried | ?? | $3,500,000 | $2,400,000 |
| Mike Soroka | ?? | $2,100,000 | $1,900,000 |
| Luke Jackson | Arb 2 | $2,000,000 | $1,900,000 |
| Abraham Almonte | Vet | $990,000 | $990,000 |
| Total committed$ | $92,940,000 | $87,700,000 |
Mike Foltynewicz is technically in line for his Arb-4 season, and I believe they’d like to keep Mike at a lower price, betting on a rebound. If they can’t work out a low guarantee or a minor league deal with incentives, they’ll non-tender Foltynewicz as well.
Seventeen pre-arb players are currently on the roster, 12 pitchers and five position players. The Atlanta Braves must add Kyle Muller to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Muller brings the total to 18.
| 1 | Ian Anderson | SP | 10 | Patrick Weigel | SP |
| 2 | Tucker Davidson | SP | 11 | Bryse Wilson | SP |
| 3 | Jasseel De La Cruz | SP | 12 | Kyle Wright | SP |
| 4 | Tyler Matzek | RP | 13 | Huascar Ynoa | SP |
| 5 | Philip Pfeifer | RP/SP | 14 | Kyle Muller | SP |
| 6 | Chad Sobotka | RP | 15 | William Contreras | C |
| 7 | Touki Toussaint | SP | 16 | Alex Jackson | C |
| 8 | Jeremy Walker | RP | 17 | Cristian Pache | OF |
| 9 | Jacob Webb | RP | 18 | Austin Riley | 3B/OF |
The Atlanta Braves have 25 additional players who would hit the Rule 5 list this year, but Muller is the only definite addition.