The idea of trading for Nolan Arenado? Not the Atlanta Braves style.
The Rockies are in a bind this Winter… don’t expect the Atlanta Braves to bail them out.
This spoiler alert is already too late, as the punchline is in the title: the Atlanta Braves would simply have to have too much help from Colorado to justify a trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Why is this relevant? In short: he probably has to be traded somewhere this off-season… and there simply aren’t that many plausible destinations.
In fact, let’s check them off:
- The Dodgers. Mentioned a lot, but once you get past the “trading within your own division” unwritten rule (i.e., try to avoid doing this), it seems that even the swimming-in-cash Dodgers might be asking Colorado for serious coin to take on this large contract. [Don’t forget: they paid Mookie, they still pay Kershaw, and Walker Beuhler will need an extension soon.]
- One of our sister sites has read those tea leaves — twice — and their Magic 8-Ball came up with an “Outlook Appears Murky” result on such a deal getting done.
- The Cardinals. Our Rockies sister site weighed in on this one some time ago… and likewise found the chances for a deal lacking. Finances and more are part of the issue for St. Louis, even though they were rumored to be considering such a move during 2020.
- Atlanta. Well, if the Braves did this, Austin Riley would almost certainly be the leading player going back, given the length of Arenado’s contract. But there would be more — a lot more — especially since Atlanta really can’t pay anyone $35 million per year.
- Red Sox? Yankees? Anyone else? Pretty much the same kind of deal, Mets excluded (but they are looking to fill other positions that are more needful for them)
Colorado faces this problem of their own making because they played a bit of Russian Roulette with themselves… and their bullet is next up.
In giving Arenado an unsolicited contract opt-out, the Rockies created this situation. Basically, they signed a lucrative long-term deal with a player that they knew they couldn’t afford to keep for the long term.
The hope — almost certainly — was that Arenado would accept the opt-out after next season and the Front Office would be able to say “Sorry fans, we tried but he walked away from us.”
Then 2020 happened and he’d be a fool to test the market under these circumstances. Nope – that $35 million per year deal is looking really good for him right now.
So with a Colorado front office unwilling to spend any more to lock up Trevor Story or fill their holes, that leaves them with an enormous contract on Arenado and a non-competitive club… and they lost big this past Summer.
So they have to trade Arenado (and maybe Story), but they can’t… not without a significant contractual discount, which is exactly what they’d rather not do.
Could the Atlanta Braves be laying wait in the weeds… looking for the right time to pounce? Don’t count on it.
There’s probably a trade deal out there for this team, but between the hope that Austin Riley will figure it out at the plate and the monies still owed to Arenado (nearly $200 million over six more seasons), this is just not in the cards for the Braves.
By our reckonings here at The Take, the Rockies would have to take Inciarte’s remaining year, Riley, probably a couple of other significant prospects, and then send very close to $100 million (half the remaining monies, spread over time) to get the Braves to take them seriously.
That’s probably about the case for every other possible destination, too.
Maybe Colorado, starting with their ownership, will figure this out. They need to. The notion of getting a discount on this contractual albatross is certainly better than getting nothing on top of having a bad team.
Once they finally come to grips with that, then meaningful talks with some lucky suitor will ensue. But that’s still almost certainly not the Atlanta Braves, who have other significant needs still on their Winter list.
Arenado’s bat and defense would indeed look great in a Braves lineup, but … come on’, man. $100 million-plus??
The Rockies just didn’t count on a COVID-19 year messing up their best-laid/diabolical plans.