Atlanta Braves’ farm system still top five but not for long

The Atlanta Braves retained a top-five prospect rating in lists released today, but both indicated that rank would slip soon.

The Atlanta Braves ranked sixth on Keith Law’s farm system list in TheAthletic — subscription required — and fifth on Baseball America’s franchise talent ranking list subscription required. Both lists hit the streets this – or the interwebs – this morning.

Prospects 1500 dropped them to eighth behind the Orioles because they factor in the departure on players certain – barring something unforeseen –  to lose prospect status this year.

Bleacher Report agrees with BA on a fifth-place ranking, and I’d expect similar from Baseball Prospectus, who generally publish a list in March.

The rankings for 2021 are skewed for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, without a 2020 minor league season, there’s little way to judge a prospect’s progress. Losing a year of development time might set some fringe players back or stall their progress completely.

The 2020 draft bore little resemblance to past years because potential draft picks played few if any games before everything shut down for the year. Some wooden-bat leagues held some form season, but scouting is, at best, sketchy. As a result, teams drafted from old data and any judgment on those players is an even bigger scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) than usual.

Before all of that happened, questionable drafts and loss of international signing money took a huge toll on the Atlanta Braves player pipeline. Fortunately, the international signing issue began to go away this year, and the club’s access to the Rule 4 amateur draft is no longer restricted; the landscape will change but not quickly.

Atlanta Braves system trending lower quickly

Players lose prospect status and exit lists when they lose rookie status; 50 innings for pitchers, 130 AB for position players. From BA’s 2021 top-30 list and their Top 100 lists, by rank (subscription required):

• Number 1.  Cristian Pache – 4 AB – BA Top 100 player (7)
• Number 2.  Ian Anderson has 32 1/3 IP – BA Top 100 player (8)
• Number 5.  Bryse Wilson – 42 2/3 IP
• Number 6.  William Contreras – 10 AB
• Number 10.  Tucker Davidson – 1 2/3 IP
• Number 12.  Huascar Ynoa – 24 2/3 IP
• Number 14.  Patrick Weigel – 2/3 IP
• Number 17.  Alex Jackson – 20 AB

Drew Waters ranks third on the Atlanta Braves team list and 32nd on BA’s top 100 and Trent suggests he might see action this year. He and Langeliers are likely to remain the only top-100 prospects by June.

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If all goes as planned, Pache, Anderson, and Wilson will drop off the list. Jackson and Contreras could both depart as well, as could Ynoa likely returns to starting this year. Weigel turns 27 in July and, for most lists, ages off.

Losing seven of the team’s top-30 list through graduation would cause the rank to drop. The issue is how far they drop. BA calls the system “very top-heavy,” and Law suggests that the Braves might trade outfield talent to fill some gaps, but generally say pitching isn’t deep past Davidson.

That’s a wrap

It’s easy to say that promotions are the reason the Atlanta Braves minor league system will drop in the ranks by mid-year.  Promotions, trades, and the restrictions imposed by MLB are a large part of the system’s condition, but recent drafts haven’t been a roaring success.

The Padres traded 29 prospects and 12 controllable major leaguers since the end of the 2019 season. They still have seven top 100 prospects on BS’s list, two of them labeled by BA as “elite.”

Saying that, the current roster is young and mostly under team control. There’s time to prevent it from turning into the mess John Coppolella inherited in 2014, but repairs have to start this year.