Braves 2021 Player Previews: Third Base is Austin Riley’s to Lose

What can the Braves expect from Riley in 2021?

Riley has gone through some high highs and some low lows when it comes to his plate performances over the past two years, but with a full season ahead of him, how do the experts predict he’ll perform?

According to FanGraphs, these are the projections:

• BAT – 136 G, .249 BA, 28 HR, 78 R, 87 RBI, .310 OBP, .457 SLG, 100 wRC+
• ATC – 129 G, .250 BA, 26 HR, 68 R, 78 RBI, .311 OBP, .469 SLG, 104 wRC+
• FGDC – 136 G, .248 BA, 30 HR, 76 R, 92 RBI, .309 OBP, .472 SLG, 97 wRC+
• STMR – 130 G, .257 BA, 27 HR, 69 R, 78 RBI, .321 OBP, .484 SLG, 103 wRC+
• ZIPS – 131 G, .239 BA, 26 HR, 67 R, 87 RBI, .297 OBP, .461 SLG, 90 wRC+

Going through these numbers, I would say they look pretty close to what I would predict for Riley’s 2021 season. No real “out of this world” numbers, but overall being decent at the plate and serviceable for a majority of the season.

I would like to believe that Riley’s batting average would be a little higher this season, but you never know. Being that this will be Riley’s third season, I’d imagine he would be able to put it together a little more at the plate and begin to get away from being such a consistent pull hitter.

But going a little further, these experts also predicted the amount of strikeouts we could expect to see from Riley.

• BAT – 174 SO in 562 AB
• ATC – 148 SO in 492 AB
• FGDC – 166 SO in 535 AB
• STMR – 138 SO in 471 AB
• ZIPS – 160 SO in 486 AB

So, going by these numbers, Riley is projected to strikeout roughly 30% of the time he has an AB. That’s a lot.

Although last season was a small sample size, I felt like Riley could potentially be working toward lowering that strikeout percentage significantly. But it seems as if the experts do not feel the same way.

Regardless, in my eyes, Riley has a bit of leeway at third base. The Braves seem keen on keeping him there as much as possible going forward and I stand by that decision.