Atlanta Braves news: odd stats signal a struggling squad

Patterns are starting to emerge from the first couple of weeks in this Atlanta Braves season.

What is it about these Atlanta Braves that makes things tick for them?  Or better yet, what is it that suggests some sort of trouble?

There are some obvious things — like walks coming from the bullpen relief corps — but you could argue that if other things were going well, that this part of their game might not even matter.

Some things are obvious:  Ronald Acuna Jr. is carrying the offense:  lock, stock, and barrel.  Only in recent games has he started to get some needed help from Freddie Freeman and others.

But the home run ball isn’t necessarily a panacea for teams.  In fact, check out this bizarre stat:

HOME RUNS HIT BY TEAM, MLB RANKS (entering Monday):

• 1st:  Atlanta Braves (25)
• Tie 26th-28th:  Washington (13)
• Tie 26th-28th: Philly (13)
• 29th:  Miami (11)
• 30th:  NY Mets (6)

Yes – the Mets can barely find the outfield fences (and they are also 30th in runs scored… granted: they do have 5 games in hand) and yet they are 7-4 and in first place.

As you can see, the rest of the NL East is also suffering a power outage.  Yet the Braves are finding that they can’t simply live by the homer.

Atlanta Braves:  wild in the strike zone?

That brings us to the pitching, then, and Atlanta has some curious numbers to consider:

• Strikeout rate:  4th overall (10.71K/9 innings)
• 19% HR-to-flyball rate (30th)
• Team ERA:  4.93 (27th)
• HR Rate allowed:  1.49 per 9 innings (tied for 26th worst)
• BABIP:  .329 (30th)

If you’re the kind of stat person who now will run to Fangraphs and declare “but the Braves expected Fielding Independent Pitching [xFIP] is only 3.73… they’ve just been unlucky!”, then I want you to stop and listen for a bit.

Here’s another stat:  90 mph.  That’s the average exit velocity for balls hit against the Braves… they’re in a tie for 5th worst in baseball.

Probably the only reason that number isn’t worse involves the opening series against Philadelphia when all of their cue shots seemed to fall in behind 1st and 3rd base (and 91.1 mph EV leads the sport).

To me, all of these numbers are adding up to one thing:  Atlanta’s pitchers are throwing too many strikes.  Stated another way, it appears there are too many hittable strikes being thrown.

In this era of baseball, hitters are swinging for the fences — a lot.  Homer rates were highest in 2019, with 2020, 2017, 2016, 2018 and 2021 ranking 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 7th behind that.

Strikeout rates are also at all-time highs, with 2021 on pace to shatter the old record… set in 2019 (2020 is currently 2nd, all time).

So it simply isn’t enough to throw a lot of strikes and get a lot of strikeouts.  Opposing hitters are going to cash in a lot of these pitches — even as they whiff on a few.

The trick is that they need to whiff more often.  It sounds too easy, but there it is.  Frankly, that shouldn’t be a big problem for hitters “selling out” on certain pitches.

Atlanta’s pitching staff… well, most of them anyway… has good control.  They need to stay out of the middle of the strike zone.  Will that mean walking a few more batters?  Maybe.  While that needs to be managed, also, it’s generally better to put a runner on first base than to see him trot around all the bases.

Some fastballs will still work.  Sean Newcomb is a key example.  He’s throwing 95+ heaters up in the zone and sometimes they are strikes and sometimes not.  However, his 4-seamers are all over the top of the zone… and that’s hard for batters to line up.

As a team, the Braves are actually tied for 7th best in getting batters to whiff on a pitch (30.2%).  The best at this are both New York teams (no surprise there with deGrom and Cole leading each rotation).

Those with the biggest needs in this area (all with HR/9 rates above 2.20) are:

• Jesse Biddle
• Jacob Webb
• Bryse Wilson
• Nate Jones
• Drew Smyly (injured)
• Max Fried (injured)
• Huascar Ynoa

The difference will be subtle, but if Atlanta can throw a bit more breaking pitches or better-placed fastballs… the whiffs will be there and the solid contact will evaporate.  That’s the kind of thing that Fried and Anderson usually excel at.

Those New York Mets are 4th best in baseball with a HR/9 rate of 0.81.  Atlanta’s rate is tied for 5th worst (1.49).

That, in turn, would help the Braves’ offense as they might not need to score as often.