Atlanta Braves News: Has Austin Riley turned a corner?

A hot topic in the Atlanta Braves forums over the past couple of weeks has been about Austin Riley and whether or not he is the answer at 3rd base for the Braves.

Riley’s struggles

Prior to this season with the Atlanta Braves, Austin Riley was trending in the wrong direction. According to his numbers in Baseball Savant, he seemed to have figured out the breaking ball issue. He raised his expecting slugging percentage (XSLG) of .417 in 2019 to .607 in 2020, but then could not hit a fastball very well, lowering his XSLG from .516 to .428.

Riley was also horrendous on defense in 2020 with -10 Defensive Runs Saved below average (DRS) according to Fangraphs, and -0.9 defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR).

Riley’s past true outcome numbers are not great either. There have been 2 glaring holes in Austin Riley’s game for his career since his start in 2019.

• First, is that he had an extremely low on base percentage (OBP) with a career .288 prior 2021.
• His defense at 3rd base had been terrible too, with a career -9 DRS and -0.9 dWAR.

How is Austin Riley doing now?

Austin Riley finally hit his first home run of the year when the Atlanta Braves split the series with the New York Yankees on Wednesday. This home run resulted in more talk among fans of Riley and his abilities.

Riley currently sits at 15% below league average in OPS+ with a slash line of .250/.375./.308. Austin Riley has only had 62 plate appearances thus far this year, and so the sample size is small. It would be prudent to look at the underlying peripherals to see how he is doing.

The peripherals are not good

• He is in the bottom 9% of the league in average exit velocity, which is a big reason for his low slugging percentage.
• He in the bottom 39% of the league or lower in hard hit percentage, expected batting average (xBA), XSLG, barrel percentage, and whiff percentage.

There is reason for hope that Riley can be a solid 3rd baseman for the Atlanta Braves

Riley seems to have spent a lot of time on defense over the off season. In fact, he has already brought more value defensively in the first month of the 2021 season than the rest if his career combined. He already has 2 DRS, and finally has a positive dWAR at 0.2. Considering he has never had positive defensive value, this is a huge plus.

His overall peripherals are bad, and there is no sugar coating it. However, there is one area that really sticks out. His expected weighted on base average (xwOBA). In a nutshell, xwOBA is basically what your expected OBP is based on quality of at bats. Riley’s has steadily increased over the past 250 plate appearances. He is organically, and slowly getting better over time.

Riley seems to be turning a corner in the 2 biggest holes in his game, and it shows. In fact, even though he is hitting at 15% below average from an OPS+ standpoint, he still has accumulated a 0.4 WAR to this point, tying Freddie Freeman.

Considering Riley’s career WAR was -0.7 prior to this season, Austin Riley has made some pretty big strides. If he can continue to raise his defensive value floor, he is raising his probability of keeping his job in an Atlanta Braves uniform.