Atlanta Braves: Why You Should Not Panic About Drew Smyly…Yet
By Seth Carter
Is it time for Atlanta Braves fans to panic over Drew Smyly?
The Atlanta Braves brought veteran lefty Drew Smyly in this offseason as a fairly pricey free agent with an $11 million deal for just this season.
Thus far, like most of the rest of the roster, Smyly has failed to impress.
It is easy to say “don’t panic” in April, but it is a whole other thing to actually not panic. We’ll try and stay optimistic and take a look at the positives of Smyly’s performances thus far.
Here is why you should not panic about Drew Smyly…yet.
Control
Drew is an eight-year veteran and was putting together a very promising start to his career before needing Tommy John surgery in 2017.
Between 20212-2016 the lefty walked just 2.5 batters per nine while posting a solid 3.74 ERA.
His first full season as a starter (28 games with 25 started) he pitched 153.0 innings with a stellar 3.24 ERA. Prior to his TJ surgery in 2017, Smyly had never walked more than three batters per nine.
While he struggled following his two-year hiatus from action, he bounced back in a big way during the pandemic-shortened 2020. His walks fell back in line with his career norms at 2.6 per nine and his strikeouts soared to 12.4 per nine.
How it is Going so Far
Thus far, Smyly has been knocked around in his three starts with the Braves, but he has only issued three free passes. He’s been missing spots, but he hasn’t been terribly wild. There is hope that he can tighten it up a little and straighten things out like the rest of the team.
Home Runs
Remember, this is a small sample size. Smyly’s career home run rate sits at 1.5 per nine innings. In the three games he’s pitched this year he’s allowed six dingers. That is good (or bad) for a 3.6 per nine rate.
The law of large numbers says that things will even out. Barring an injury, he’s going to have a couple of fantastic performances to regain your trust in the near future.
Don’t panic!
Pitch Location
In 2020, Smyly was consistently locating his fastball on the corners and up in the zone. So far this season, it’s been lower than normal and out over the plate. The curveball has been left hanging over the middle far too often for a guy who relies on it. He’ll harness it in and get back on track!
Smyly gave up just two homers on the curveball last season on 176 pitches. He has already matched that this year in 98 pitches.
Don’t panic!
The Sunny Side
It is only April and he’s only had three starts. The last start was his first after a 10-day IL trip. Smyly did post a quality start in his first opportunity with the Braves on the sixth. His curveball looked great as he held the Nationals to just two earned runs through six innings. He only walked one batter and struck out eight in 94 pitches. Hopefully, Smyly knocked the rust off after his minor injury and get back to that form in his next start.
Smyly has had some bad luck and a lot of hard hits. You can’t miss spots in the major leagues. On the bright side, he ranks in the 82nd percentile in walk rate and the 89th percentile in chase rate.
At the time of this writing, Smyly is sitting on a 7.20 ERA after three starts. If he stays healthy and continues to throw strikes, that ERA is coming down. He should end up being a solid backend of the rotation player for the Atlanta Braves in 2021. Don’t Panic!
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What do you think? Was Smyly a waste of money for the Braves this year? Will he contribute? Let us know in the comments below!