Atlanta Braves Roster: Nate Jones Optioned To Alternate Training Site

The Atlanta Braves have optioned relief pitcher Nate Jones to their alternate trading site.

Atlanta Braves fans seemingly sighed a breath of relief as the organization announced earlier in the day that Nate Jones will be optioned to the alternate training site. This move is most likely to create room for another pitcher that has a high probability to perform much better than Nate Jones has.

Why did the Atlanta Braves sign Jones in the first place?

Earlier in the year, it would have made sense to be optimistic about the signing of Nate Jones. It was a low risk minor league signing with a potential high return of surplus value. Sure, he has had some injuries, and his most recent numbers reflected it, but overall his career numbers were good enough for the Atlanta Braves to sign him to a minor league deal.

If you look at Nate Jones’ career surface stats, they are well above average. For his career he has an ERA of 3.32, a FIP of 3.71, and a very good 9.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. These numbers equate to an ERA+ of 129, meaning he has been approximately 29% better than league average at preventing runs.

Since 2015, when baseball savant has been tracking, his peripherals have shown promise too. In 2015 he had an expected earned run average (xERA) of 3.23, and in 2016 an impressive 2.88. His expected weighted on base average against (XWOBA) only topped .316 once before 2019, and for his career it is a decent .313.

Add up all these numbers, and it equates to Nate Jones being worth a flyer, and with all the injuries the Atlanta Braves have had, it could have been the signing of the year if everything went well. Unfortunately, it seemed nothing went well for Nate Jones.

Were the Atlanta Braves making the right choice to optioning Nate Jones?

The answer seems to be pretty obvious that Jones was a prime candidate to be optioned, but sometimes the eye test can be deceiving. So, what do the numbers actually say?

At a very high level, and if no one was paying close attention, it may be puzzling that Nate Jones would be optioned with an ERA of 3.48 when the bullpen has been struggling. This is a case where ERA can be very deceiving in a small sample size.

If we dig a little deeper, we see that his walk rate of 20% and strikeout rate of 14% are the lowest they have ever been for Nate Jones, and it’s not particularly close. Before 2021, Jones’ worst walk rate was 14.9%, and his worst strikeout rate was 21.3%. His xERA was astronomically higher than his actual ERA at 5.52.

To be fair, sometimes a pitcher just has a bad few outings. However, if we look at Jones’ run prevention since 2017, he only has one year with his xERA below 4.36. Hitters are hitting that ball hard against him in recent years too. Jones’ hard hit percentage of 56.4% in 2020, and 46.9% in 2021 are both well above his career average of 35.2%.

If we look at fielding independent pitching (FIP), it is even more eye opening. According to FanGraphs, his expected FIP (xFIP) is 8.02. That is not a typo, it is over 8. Nate Jones’ career xFIP is a very good 3.62, but it is obvious that injuries have taken a toll with Jones never truly gaining back his early career form with an xFIP never dropping below 4.39 since 2018.

It is safe to say that with Nate Jones already accumulating an atrocious -0.6 Wins Above Replacement in only 12 games, it was time for the Atlanta Braves to find a different option on their 26 man roster. It is always sad to see someone’s career get derailed by injuries, and it appears Nate Jones has been one of the recent victims.