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Atlanta Braves face the Milwaukee Brewers: Who Has The Advantage?

By Sam Peebles

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 04: The Atlanta Braves take the field prior to game two of an MLB doubleheader against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on September 4, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 04: The Atlanta Braves take the field prior to game two of an MLB doubleheader against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on September 4, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves right fielder Jorge Soler (12) looks toward the dugout after hitting a single against the Milwaukee Brewers. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

How did these 2 division winners do against each other?

These 2 teams are 3-3 against each other this year, which is an extremely small sample size. Within this small sample, the Braves had better overall statistics (besides wins, obviously), which could mean that over a larger sample size, they would have won more games.

The Braves had a .269/.343/.425 and .768 OPS slash line, scoring 34 runs against the Brewers.  On the Brewers’ side of things, they had a .230/.319/.365 and .684 OPS slash line, scoring 26 runs.

The Braves took the first series 2-1, and the Brewers took the second 2-1.

One area that is a good idea to look at is how the teams did against the top 3 starters since that is who they will face in the postseason.

The Brewers faced Charlie Morton 1 time, where he pitched 6 innings of 2-run ball. They did not face September pitcher of the month Max Fried, and they faced Ian Anderson 1 time where he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball.

The Atlanta Braves did much better against the Brewers top 3. Against Corbin Burnes, the Atlanta Braves tagged him for 5 earned runs in 4 innings. Against Brandon Woodruff, they scored 3 earned runs in 5.1 innings. The Braves could not score on Freddy Peralta, who pitched 6 innings.

Can the Brewers have success against Fried and Morton?

One area that the Atlanta Braves will have a clear advantage is the curveball vs the Brewers offense.

Brewers against the curveball:

  • Batting Average – 29th in MLB
  • Slugging Percentage – 25th in MLB
  • Weighted On Base Average – 25th in MLB

Charlie Morton throws his curveball 36.6% of the time. Max Fried throws his curveball 47.4% of the time.

Who has the advantage?

One thing is for certain; this will be a fun matchup. It appears that, even though the Braves’ bullpen has improved, the Brewers have the advantage.

It appears that the Braves have a clear advantage offensively, not only across the board, but specifically against the Brewers’ starting pitching.

The Braves appear to have the advantage with their rotation giving up a total of 3 ER in 12 innings from Anderson and Morton. This is even without Fried who seems primed to be the Brewers’ kryptonite.

The key for the Atlanta Braves will be to score early and often, so that when they face the bullpen, they already have the lead.

The key for the Brewers is similar. They want to get to the bullpen as fast as possible, so they have a better chance to score runs.

Next. What will the Atlanta Braves do with the playoff roster?. dark

All things considered, it appears that the Atlanta Braves have a very slight advantage. Here is to hoping that prediction is correct.

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